Industry group, 6211
Offices of Physicians
2,936,460 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $106,660 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 2.7 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 49%
- 25%
- 27%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 35% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 2,669,827 people in jobs so far, 91% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 1.2 billion hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 1.3 billion hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 408 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 25%
- 24%
- 9%
- 17%
- 25%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 2,669,827 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- Judgment where errors are severe1,590,725 (60%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself915,043 (34%)
- Signing off under your license784,782 (29%)
- The hands-on craft783,037 (29%)
- Running AI inside the business systems669,660 (25%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts357,895 (13%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization152,290 (6%)
- The conversations71,362 (3%)
- Handling protected records5,170 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 4%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 35%. Today's estimate: 44%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 35% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 14% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 12% in a purpose-built cell, 2% in a structured facility. 0.16 of 3.
- Not physical 65%
- No robot shown 21%
- In a purpose-built cell 12%
- In a structured facility 2%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 83% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 297,820 | 84% | 523 million | $45K |
| Medical Assistants | 452,150 | 29% | 274 million | $46K |
| Registered Nurses | 232,420 | 37% | 178 million | $85K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 135,030 | 60% | 167 million | $40K |
| Nurse Practitioners | 148,600 | 46% | 143 million | $129K |
| Billing and Posting Clerks | 65,230 | 85% | 115 million | $48K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 67,330 | 54% | 76 million | $63K |
| Physician Assistants | 86,830 | 38% | 69 million | $132K |
| Medical Records Specialists | 34,860 | 94% | 68 million | $47K |
| Family Medicine Physicians | 73,970 | 38% | 59 million | $238K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 41,820 | 64% | 56 million | $43K |
| Office Clerks, General | 43,610 | 56% | 51 million | $43K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 246 smaller jobs (497,760 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Perform bookkeeping duties, such as credits or collections, preparing and sending financial statements or bills, and keeping financial records.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants119 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Operate office equipment, such as voice mail messaging systems, and use word processing, spreadsheet, or other software applications to prepare reports, invoices, financial statements, letters, case histories, or medical records.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants66 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Record patients' medical history, vital statistics, or information such as test results in medical records.Medical Assistants62 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Keep financial records or perform other bookkeeping duties, such as handling credit or collections or mailing monthly statements to patients.Medical Assistants62 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Complete insurance or other claim forms.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants57 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare correspondence or assist physicians or medical scientists with preparation of reports, speeches, articles, or conference proceedings.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants49 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compile and record medical charts, reports, or correspondence, using typewriter or personal computer.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants46 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain medical records, technical library, or correspondence files.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants45 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Perform general office duties, such as answering telephones, taking dictation, or completing insurance forms.Medical Assistants44 million hours60% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative support tasks, such as proofreading, transcribing handwritten information, or operating calculators or computers to work with pay records, invoices, balance sheets, or other documents.Receptionists and Information Clerks42 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Home Health Care Services1,789,480 people19% now, 21% by 2028
- Offices of Other Health Practitioners1,305,160 people39% now, 42% by 2028
- Outpatient Care Centers1,182,730 people39% now, 44% by 2028
- Offices of Dentists1,054,930 people37% now, 39% by 2028
- Other Ambulatory Health Care Services369,130 people26% now, 32% by 2028
- Medical and Diagnostic Laboratories309,310 people34% now, 41% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Offices of Physicians is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 44% of the paid hours in Offices of Physicians are within reach of AI models now and 48% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (47% to 49% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Offices of Physicians carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants (297,820 people, 84% of their time, about 523 million hours a year); Medical Assistants (452,150 people, 29% of their time, about 274 million hours a year); and Registered Nurses (232,420 people, 37% of their time, about 178 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Offices of Physicians carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Perform bookkeeping duties, such as credits or collections, preparing and sending financial statements or bills, and keeping financial records (Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, about 119 million hours a year); Operate office equipment, such as voice mail messaging systems, and use word processing, spreadsheet, or other software applications to prepare reports, invoices, financial statements, letters, case histories, or medical records (Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, about 66 million hours a year); and Record patients' medical history, vital statistics, or information such as test results in medical records (Medical Assistants, about 62 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Offices of Physicians learn first?
- Among the 2,669,827 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are judgment where errors are severe (1,590,725 people); reviewing work you did not do yourself (915,043 people); and signing off under your license (784,782 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 51% of their working time stays with people, 41% becomes checking a model's work and 7% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Offices of Physicians (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 99% of its people, and 91% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.