Skip to content
STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
Menu

Pediatric Surgeons

Diagnose and perform surgery to treat fetal abnormalities and birth defects, diseases, and injuries in fetuses, premature and newborn infants, children, and adolescents. Includes all pediatric surgical specialties and subspecialties.

1,190 people do this job in the US. $559,030 a year.

now
5%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 5%
  • 1%
  • 93%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 5% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 5%. Today's estimate: 5%.

0%5%10%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 2% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 3% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 4% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 4% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 4% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 4% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 5% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 5% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 18 tasks from .

TaskKind
Conduct research to develop and test surgical techniques that can improve operating procedures and outcomes.69%3.5 work weeks4.2 work days to 3.2 work monthsStays with people
Perform transplantation operations, such as organ transplants, on fetuses, infants, children, and adolescents.11%6.7 h3.3 h to 2.1 work daysStays with people
Operate on fetuses, infants, children, and adolescents to correct deformities, repair injuries, prevent and treat diseases, or improve or restore patients' functions.6%3.3 h1.3 h to 1 work dayStays with people
Follow established surgical techniques during the operation.3%1.7 h50 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Examine fetuses, infants, children, and adolescents, and diagnose health issues to determine need for intervention, such as surgery.1%50 min25 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Manage surgery services, including planning, scheduling and coordination, determination of procedures, or procurement of supplies and equipment.1%50 min25 min to 2.5 h95%Half by now
Provide consultation and surgical assistance to other physicians and surgeons.1%50 min17 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Consult with patient's other medical care specialists, such as cardiologist and endocrinologist, to determine if surgery is necessary.1%38 min17 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Monitor patient's recovery, making follow-up visits and using postoperative assessment techniques, such as blood and imaging tests.1%38 min17 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Describe preoperative and postoperative treatments and procedures, such as sedatives, diets, antibiotics, or preparation and treatment of the patient's operative area, to parents or guardians of the patient.0.9%33 min17 min to 1.1 h100%Half by now
Analyze patient's medical history, medication allergies, physical condition, and examination results to verify operation's necessity and to determine best procedure.0.8%29 min17 min to 50 min100%Half by now
Examine patient to obtain information on medical condition and surgical risk.0.7%25 min13 min to 50 minStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).