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Dermatologists

Diagnose and treat diseases relating to the skin, hair, and nails. May perform both medical and dermatological surgery functions.

11,370 people do this job in the US. $328,730 a year.

now
16%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 41%
  • 8%
  • 51%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
August 2027

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 41% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 4%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 16%. Today's estimate: 16%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 4% within reacho3, April 2025: 9% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 11% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 12% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 12% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 13% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 13% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 16% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 16% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 18 tasks from .

TaskKind
Conduct clinical or basic research.Done yearly or less by most who do it.25%2.1 work days6.7 h to 4.2 work days0%Half by Jan 2028
Perform skin surgery to improve appearance, make early diagnoses, or control diseases such as skin cancer.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 18%1.3 h38 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Diagnose and treat pigmented lesions such as common acquired nevi, congenital nevi, dysplastic nevi, Spitz nevi, blue nevi, or melanoma.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 7%29 min17 min to 50 minStays with people
Diagnose and treat skin conditions such as acne, dandruff, athlete's foot, moles, psoriasis, or skin cancer.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 7%25 min13 min to 42 minStays with people
Conduct complete skin examinations.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 7%21 min13 min to 33 minStays with people
Counsel patients on topics such as the need for annual dermatologic screenings, sun protection, skin cancer awareness, or skin and lymph node self-examinations.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 5%17 min8 min to 29 minStays with people
Perform incisional biopsies to diagnose melanoma.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 5%38 min17 min to 1.1 hStays with people
Provide therapies such as intralesional steroids, chemical peels, or comodo removal to treat age spots, sun damage, rough skin, discolored skin, or oily skin.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 5%25 min13 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Read current literature, talk with colleagues, and participate in professional organizations or conferences to keep abreast of developments in dermatology.Done more than weekly by most who do it. AI observed on this task.4%50 min25 min to 2.5 h95%Half by now
Instruct interns or residents in diagnosis and treatment of dermatological diseases.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 3%50 min25 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Provide dermabrasion or laser abrasion to treat atrophic scars, elevated scars, or other skin conditions.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 3%1.3 h38 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Record patients' health histories.Done hourly or more by most who do it. AI observed on this task.3%8 min4 min to 17 min100%Half by now

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).