Subsector, 623
Nursing and Residential Care Facilities
3,395,180 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $50,770 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 1.4 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 27%
- 7%
- 67%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 17% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 20%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 90% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nursing Assistants | 707,730 | 15% | 224 million | $42K |
| Personal Care Aides | 347,365 | 17% | 122 million | $37K |
| Home Health Aides | 347,365 | 14% | 103 million | $37K |
| Registered Nurses | 198,830 | 21% | 86 million | $84K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 41,230 | 83% | 71 million | $36K |
| Social and Human Service Assistants | 45,690 | 44% | 42 million | $43K |
| Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses | 246,350 | 8% | 40 million | $68K |
| Mental Health Counselors | 27,690 | 65% | 37 million | $49K |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 19,970 | 87% | 36 million | $45K |
| Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria | 105,400 | 16% | 35 million | $38K |
| Food Servers, Nonrestaurant | 140,530 | 10% | 30 million | $34K |
| Office Clerks, General | 22,700 | 58% | 27 million | $45K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 238 smaller jobs (340,230 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 100% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Provide patients and families with emotional support and instruction in areas such as caring for infants, preparing healthy meals, living independently, or adapting to disability or illness.Home Health Aides62 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses56 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Communicate with patients to ascertain feelings or need for assistance or social and emotional support.Nursing Assistants52 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Participate in case reviews, consulting with the team caring for the client, to evaluate the client's needs and plan for continuing services.Personal Care Aides49 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Answer patient call signals, signal lights, bells, or intercom systems to determine patients' needs.Nursing Assistants48 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain records of patient care, condition, progress, or problems to report and discuss observations with supervisor or case manager.Home Health Aides41 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Provide clients with communication assistance, typing their correspondence or obtaining information for them.Personal Care Aides38 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare and maintain records of client progress and services performed, reporting changes in client condition to manager or supervisor.Personal Care Aides35 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Document or otherwise report observations of patient behavior, complaints, or physical symptoms to nurses.Nursing Assistants34 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Evaluate nursing intervention outcomes, conferring with other healthcare team members as necessary.Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses27 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Nursing Care Facilities (Skilled Nursing Facilities)1,531,750 people18% now, 23% by 2028
- Continuing Care Retirement Communities and Assisted Living Facilities for the Elderly1,013,180 people18% now, 23% by 2028
- Residential Intellectual and Developmental Disability, Mental Health, and Substance Abuse Facilities687,210 people25% now, 32% by 2028
- Other Residential Care Facilities163,040 people26% now, 36% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works