Industry group, 6232
Residential Intellectual and Developmental Disability, Mental Health, and Substance Abuse Facilities
687,210 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $48,770 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 303 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 25%
- 38%
- 38%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 670,751 people in jobs so far, 98% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 204 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 95 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 102 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 17%
- 7%
- 8%
- 30%
- 38%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 670,751 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft371,303 (55%)
- Judgment where errors are severe333,948 (50%)
- The conversations308,063 (46%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself125,751 (19%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts72,494 (11%)
- Signing off under your license65,292 (10%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization28,710 (4%)
- Running AI inside the business systems28,610 (4%)
- Handling protected records100 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 16%. Today's estimate: 22%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 52% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 22% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 18% in a purpose-built cell, 3% in a structured facility. 0.26 of 3.
- Not physical 48%
- No robot shown 30%
- In a purpose-built cell 18%
- In a structured facility 3%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 92% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Care Aides | 160,645 | 10% | 32 million | $37K |
| Home Health Aides | 160,645 | 7% | 24 million | $37K |
| Mental Health Counselors | 23,755 | 43% | 21 million | $49K |
| Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors | 23,755 | 33% | 16 million | $49K |
| Registered Nurses | 20,550 | 37% | 16 million | $83K |
| Rehabilitation Counselors | 11,090 | 64% | 15 million | $42K |
| Social and Human Service Assistants | 29,030 | 24% | 14 million | $41K |
| Social and Community Service Managers | 14,950 | 36% | 11 million | $71K |
| Residential Advisors | 20,110 | 26% | 11 million | $44K |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 4,930 | 84% | 8.7 million | $44K |
| General and Operations Managers | 8,310 | 45% | 7.8 million | $96K |
| Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers | 13,280 | 27% | 7.4 million | $50K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 171 smaller jobs (51,420 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Maintain records of patient care, condition, progress, or problems to report and discuss observations with supervisor or case manager.Home Health Aides13 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Provide clients with communication assistance, typing their correspondence or obtaining information for them.Personal Care Aides12 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Prepare and maintain records of client progress and services performed, reporting changes in client condition to manager or supervisor.Personal Care Aides11 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Plan, purchase, prepare, or serve meals to patients or other family members, according to prescribed diets.Home Health Aides11 million hours20% of the task within reach
- Participate in case reviews, consulting with the team caring for the client, to evaluate the client's needs and plan for continuing services.Personal Care Aides4.6 million hours20% of the task within reach
- Develop rehabilitation plans that fit clients' aptitudes, education levels, physical abilities, and career goals.Rehabilitation Counselors4.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete and maintain accurate records or reports regarding the patients' histories and progress, services provided, or other required information.Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan or conduct programs to prevent substance abuse, combat social problems, or improve health or counseling services in community.Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers3.9 million hours60% of the task within reach
- Develop client treatment plans based on research, clinical experience, and client histories.Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors3.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Establish and oversee administrative procedures to meet objectives set by boards of directors or senior management.Social and Community Service Managers3.9 million hours60% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Residential Intellectual and Developmental Disability, Mental Health, and Substance Abuse Facilities is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 22% of the paid hours in Residential Intellectual and Developmental Disability, Mental Health, and Substance Abuse Facilities are within reach of AI models now and 24% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (24% to 25% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Residential Intellectual and Developmental Disability, Mental Health, and Substance Abuse Facilities carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Personal Care Aides (160,645 people, 10% of their time, about 32 million hours a year); Home Health Aides (160,645 people, 7% of their time, about 24 million hours a year); and Mental Health Counselors (23,755 people, 43% of their time, about 21 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Residential Intellectual and Developmental Disability, Mental Health, and Substance Abuse Facilities carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Maintain records of patient care, condition, progress, or problems to report and discuss observations with supervisor or case manager (Home Health Aides, about 13 million hours a year); Provide clients with communication assistance, typing their correspondence or obtaining information for them (Personal Care Aides, about 12 million hours a year); and Prepare and maintain records of client progress and services performed, reporting changes in client condition to manager or supervisor (Personal Care Aides, about 11 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Residential Intellectual and Developmental Disability, Mental Health, and Substance Abuse Facilities learn first?
- Among the 670,751 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (371,303 people); judgment where errors are severe (333,948 people); and the conversations (308,063 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 75% of their working time stays with people, 20% becomes checking a model's work and 4% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Residential Intellectual and Developmental Disability, Mental Health, and Substance Abuse Facilities (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 99% of its people, and 98% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.