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STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
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Industry group, 6231

Nursing Care Facilities (Skilled Nursing Facilities)

1,531,750 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $54,790 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.

now
18%

of the paid hours. Estimate.

$22B

a year: 572 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.

Kinds of work
  • 24%
  • 4%
  • 72%
2%

of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 16% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.

Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.

Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 24% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 5%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 17%. Today's estimate: 18%.

0%10%20%30%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 1% within reacho1, December 2024: 2% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 5% within reacho3, April 2025: 9% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 10% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 12% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 12% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 13% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 13% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 17% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 18% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

Where the hours are

Jobs by hours within reach now. The 39 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.

PeoplePay here
Nursing Assistants534,27015%169 million$43K
Registered Nurses142,27021%62 million$86K
Receptionists and Information Clerks17,93083%31 million$35K
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses188,2108%31 million$70K
Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants10,59087%19 million$46K
Medical Records Specialists9,79089%18 million$47K
Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria49,35016%16 million$37K
Food Servers, Nonrestaurant60,48010%13 million$35K
Healthcare Social Workers13,92042%12 million$61K
Speech-Language Pathologists7,44071%11 million$112K
Recreation Workers36,21014%11 million$37K
First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers10,65048%11 million$57K

People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 153 smaller jobs (74,460 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 100% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.

The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028

Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.

  1. Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses
    40 million hours100% of the task within reach
  2. Communicate with patients to ascertain feelings or need for assistance or social and emotional support.Nursing Assistants
    39 million hours100% of the task within reach
  3. Answer patient call signals, signal lights, bells, or intercom systems to determine patients' needs.Nursing Assistants
    36 million hours100% of the task within reach
  4. Document or otherwise report observations of patient behavior, complaints, or physical symptoms to nurses.Nursing Assistants
    26 million hours100% of the task within reach
  5. Evaluate nursing intervention outcomes, conferring with other healthcare team members as necessary.Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
    21 million hours100% of the task within reach
  6. Explain medical instructions to patients or family members.Nursing Assistants
    21 million hours100% of the task within reach
  7. Work with individuals, groups, or families to plan or implement programs designed to improve the overall health of communities.Registered Nurses
    19 million hours100% of the task within reach
  8. Gather information from caregivers, nurses, or physicians about patient condition, treatment plans, or appropriate activities.Nursing Assistants
    19 million hours100% of the task within reach
  9. Maintain accurate, detailed reports and records.Registered Nurses
    16 million hours100% of the task within reach
  10. Review patients' dietary restrictions, food allergies, and preferences to ensure patient receives appropriate diet.Nursing Assistants
    15 million hours100% of the task within reach

Scan a typical company in this industry

The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.

Next to this industry

Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works