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STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
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Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers

Assess and treat individuals with mental, emotional, or substance abuse problems, including abuse of alcohol, tobacco, and/or other drugs. Activities may include individual and group therapy, crisis intervention, case management, client advocacy, prevention, and education.

132,810 people do this job in the US. $60,280 a year.

now
21%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 47%
  • 53%
  • 0%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
February 2027

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 47% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 20%. Today's estimate: 21%.

0%10%20%30%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 4% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 6% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 10% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 10% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 13% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 13% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 20% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 21% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 13 tasks from .

TaskKind
Plan or conduct programs to prevent substance abuse, combat social problems, or improve health or counseling services in community.Done more than yearly by most who do it.24%1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days2%Half by Feb 2028
Develop or advise on social policy or assist in community development.Done more than yearly by most who do it.13%2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeksStays with people
Interview clients, review records, conduct assessments, or confer with other professionals to evaluate the mental or physical condition of clients or patients.Done daily by most who do it. 12%1.7 h50 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Counsel clients in individual or group sessions to assist them in dealing with substance abuse, mental or physical illness, poverty, unemployment, or physical abuse.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 10%50 min38 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Supervise or direct other workers who provide services to clients or patients.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 8%1.3 h25 min to 2.1 hStays with people
Educate clients or community members about mental or physical illness, abuse, medication, or available community resources.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 5%50 min25 min to 1.7 h99%Half by now
Collaborate with counselors, physicians, or nurses to plan or coordinate treatment, drawing on social work experience and patient needs.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 5%38 min25 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Assist clients in adhering to treatment plans, such as setting up appointments, arranging for transportation to appointments, or providing support.Done daily by most who do it. 5%38 min13 min to 50 min100%Half by now
Counsel or aid family members to assist them in understanding, dealing with, or supporting the client or patient.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 4%50 min25 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Increase social work knowledge by reviewing current literature, conducting social research, or attending seminars, training workshops, or classes.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 4%2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h46%Half by Oct 2026
Monitor, evaluate, and record client progress with respect to treatment goals.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task.4%25 min17 min to 50 min100%Half by now
Modify treatment plans according to changes in client status.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 3%38 min17 min to 1.3 h100%Half by now

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.