Subsector, 624
Social Assistance
4,976,250 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $43,750 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 2 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 22%
- 39%
- 40%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 15% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 4,848,970 people in jobs so far, 97% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 1.3 billion hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 606 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 640 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 15%
- 6%
- 7%
- 32%
- 40%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 4,848,970 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The conversations2,722,610 (56%)
- The hands-on craft2,702,900 (56%)
- Judgment where errors are severe2,106,572 (43%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself715,325 (15%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization605,530 (12%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts471,663 (10%)
- Running AI inside the business systems185,240 (4%)
- Signing off under your license122,150 (3%)
- Handling protected records4,690 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 14%. Today's estimate: 19%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 57% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 24% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 20% in a purpose-built cell, 3% in a structured facility. 0.29 of 3.
- Not physical 43%
- No robot shown 33%
- In a purpose-built cell 20%
- In a structured facility 3%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 91% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Care Aides | 1,188,285 | 10% | 237 million | $35K |
| Home Health Aides | 1,188,285 | 7% | 180 million | $35K |
| Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education | 361,430 | 24% | 180 million | $37K |
| Social and Human Service Assistants | 182,250 | 24% | 89 million | $45K |
| Child, Family, and School Social Workers | 115,890 | 32% | 78 million | $50K |
| Childcare Workers | 290,600 | 12% | 70 million | $34K |
| Rehabilitation Counselors | 50,180 | 64% | 66 million | $45K |
| Social and Community Service Managers | 84,240 | 36% | 63 million | $76K |
| Office Clerks, General | 52,130 | 56% | 61 million | $40K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 46,020 | 59% | 56 million | $44K |
| General and Operations Managers | 57,550 | 45% | 54 million | $89K |
| Education and Childcare Administrators, Preschool and Daycare | 62,560 | 41% | 53 million | $58K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 287 smaller jobs (449,520 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Maintain records of patient care, condition, progress, or problems to report and discuss observations with supervisor or case manager.Home Health Aides99 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Provide clients with communication assistance, typing their correspondence or obtaining information for them.Personal Care Aides92 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Prepare and maintain records of client progress and services performed, reporting changes in client condition to manager or supervisor.Personal Care Aides84 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Plan, purchase, prepare, or serve meals to patients or other family members, according to prescribed diets.Home Health Aides82 million hours20% of the task within reach
- Adapt teaching methods and instructional materials to meet students' varying needs and interests.Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education50 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Participate in case reviews, consulting with the team caring for the client, to evaluate the client's needs and plan for continuing services.Personal Care Aides34 million hours20% of the task within reach
- Maintain case history records and prepare reports.Child, Family, and School Social Workers31 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan, shop for, or prepare nutritious meals or assist families in planning, shopping for, or preparing nutritious meals.Personal Care Aides28 million hours20% of the task within reach
- Conduct social research.Child, Family, and School Social Workers28 million hours88% of the task within reach
- Create developmentally appropriate lesson plans.Childcare Workers28 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Social Assistance is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 19% of the paid hours in Social Assistance are within reach of AI models now and 22% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (21% to 22% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Social Assistance carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Personal Care Aides (1,188,285 people, 10% of their time, about 237 million hours a year); Home Health Aides (1,188,285 people, 7% of their time, about 180 million hours a year); and Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education (361,430 people, 24% of their time, about 180 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Social Assistance carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Maintain records of patient care, condition, progress, or problems to report and discuss observations with supervisor or case manager (Home Health Aides, about 99 million hours a year); Provide clients with communication assistance, typing their correspondence or obtaining information for them (Personal Care Aides, about 92 million hours a year); and Prepare and maintain records of client progress and services performed, reporting changes in client condition to manager or supervisor (Personal Care Aides, about 84 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Social Assistance learn first?
- Among the 4,848,970 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the conversations (2,722,610 people); the hands-on craft (2,702,900 people); and judgment where errors are severe (2,106,572 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 78% of their working time stays with people, 17% becomes checking a model's work and 4% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Social Assistance (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 98% of its people, and 97% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.