Childcare Workers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 12% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 88% of the time, stays with people.
Attend to children at schools, businesses, private households, and childcare institutions. Perform a variety of tasks, such as dressing, feeding, bathing, and overseeing play.
518,910 people do this job in the US. $34,980 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on3 h
- A person checks AI's work2 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people35 h
Childcare Workers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 3 hours, 2 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 35 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Create lesson plans (about 2 h); Supervise, train and schedule staff (under an hour, a person checks); Do general administrative tasks (under an hour).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 6%
- 6%
- 1%
- 47%
- 40%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 12% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 9%. Today's estimate: 12%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.085% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 177th largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 2 of its 24 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.029% to 0.025% (released February and March 2025); 0.048% to 0.057% (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.09% to 0.085% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.029% | 374 of 708 | 3 of 24 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.025% | 388 of 703 | 2 of 24 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.048% | 247 of 655 | 3 of 24 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.077% | 187 of 672 | 4 of 24 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.057% | 233 of 677 | 4 of 24 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.09% | 171 of 434 | 2 of 24 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.085% | 177 of 447 | 2 of 24 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 71% of this job's working time as physical work. For 11% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 11% in a purpose-built cell. 0.11 of 3, the 507th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 29%
- No robot shown 60%
- In a purpose-built cell 11%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
88% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Care for children in group settings, the in-person work, 29%
- Watch over children at play, the hands-on work, 9%
- Organize games and outings, the in-person work, 6%
- Keep the play area safe, the hands-on work, 4%
- Support children's emotional development, the in-person work, 4%
- Supervise, train and schedule staff, the in-person work, 3%
What becomes checking the machine
5% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it. Another 7% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
- Supervise, train and schedule staff, costly if wrong, 2%
- Keep records on each child, severe if wrong, 2%
- Spot developmental problems and tell parents, costly if wrong, 0.9%
What to learn
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- The conversations. About 48% of the time is conversation and in-person work, which this site leaves with people: listening, explaining, persuading, calming.
- The hands-on craft. About 40% of the time is hands-on work, which no model here does; robots are rated separately on this page.
- Dealing with people outside the organization. Customers, patients, suppliers or the public: trust with them is built by a person.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 24 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Care for children in institutional setting, such as group homes, nursery schools, private businesses, or schools for people with disabilities.Hands-on care and attention to a group of children.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 29% | 3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 h | In person 50%, hands-on 50% | Stays with people |
| Observe and monitor children's play activities.Being present and watching.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 9% | 33 min17 min to 50 min | Hands-on 60%, in person 40% | Stays with people |
| Organize and participate in recreational activities and outings, such as games and field trips.Leading children's activities in person.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 1.7 h38 min to 4.2 h | In person 80%, hands-on 20% | Stays with people |
| Perform general personnel functions, such as supervision, training, and scheduling.Leading staff in person, with the schedule kept.Done daily by most who do it. | 6% | 1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h | In person 60%, systems 40% | 39%Desk part half by now |
| Create developmentally appropriate lesson plans.Planning on paper.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 5% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | Documents 100% | 99%Half by now |
| Identify signs of emotional or developmental problems in children and bring them to parents' or guardians' attention.Watching the child over time, and a conversation with the parents.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 38 min17 min to 1.3 h | In person 80%, documents 20% | 20%Desk part half by now |
| Maintain a safe play environment.Checking and clearing the space by hand.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Support children's emotional and social development, encouraging understanding of others and positive self-concepts.Being with a child, moment by moment.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Read to children and teach them simple painting, drawing, handicrafts, and songs.Leading children in person.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Perform general administrative tasks, such as taking attendance, editing internal paperwork, and making phone calls.Attendance and paperwork, and phone calls.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 25 min13 min to 1.3 h | Systems 50%, conversation 30%, documents 20% | 70%Desk part half by now |
| Organize and store toys and materials to ensure order in activity areas.Tidying by hand.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, RightPick 3 / RightPick 4 (RightHand Robotics) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Regulate children's rest periods.Settling children and staying with them.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | In person 60%, hands-on 40% | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education24% now, 24% by 2028
- Nannies12% now, 12% by 2028
- Personal Care Aides10% now, 10% by 2028
- Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special Education23% now, 23% by 2028
- Home Health Aides7% now, 7% by 2028
- Teaching Assistants, Preschool, Elementary, Middle, and Secondary School, Except Special Education8% now, 8% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Childcare Workers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 12% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 12% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Childcare Workers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Create lesson plans (99% of the task's time now); Supervise, train and schedule staff (39% of the task's time now); and Do general administrative tasks (70% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Childcare Workers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Care for children in group settings; Watch over children at play; and Organize games and outings. Together such tasks are about 81% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Childcare Workers learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are judgment where errors are severe; the conversations; and the hands-on craft. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 88% of the working time stays with people, 5% becomes checking a model's work and 7% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Childcare Workers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.085% went to this job's tasks, the 177th largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 2 of its 24 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 1%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Childcare Workers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 71% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 11% of the working time. Its index is 0.11 of 3. One example: RightPick 3 / RightPick 4 (RightHand Robotics) for "organize and store toys". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 24 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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