Industry group, 8134
Civic and Social Organizations
358,750 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $45,880 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 223 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 36%
- 35%
- 29%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 25% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 339,534 people in jobs so far, 95% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 153 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 65 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 54 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 26%
- 10%
- 9%
- 27%
- 29%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 339,534 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The conversations163,602 (48%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts129,088 (38%)
- The hands-on craft123,020 (36%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself116,754 (34%)
- Judgment where errors are severe73,645 (22%)
- Running AI inside the business systems37,190 (11%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization21,610 (6%)
- Signing off under your license270 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 31%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 45% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 28% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 23% in a purpose-built cell, 5% in a structured facility. 0.34 of 3.
- Not physical 55%
- No robot shown 17%
- In a purpose-built cell 23%
- In a structured facility 5%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 86% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors | 31,360 | 48% | 31 million | $39K |
| Bartenders | 39,060 | 20% | 16 million | $28K |
| Recreation Workers | 26,010 | 27% | 15 million | $36K |
| Office Clerks, General | 9,330 | 56% | 11 million | $38K |
| General and Operations Managers | 11,360 | 45% | 11 million | $83K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 7,650 | 64% | 10 million | $34K |
| Self-Enrichment Teachers | 12,310 | 40% | 10 million | $40K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 5,220 | 88% | 9.6 million | $46K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 6,890 | 59% | 8.4 million | $45K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 6,630 | 60% | 8.2 million | $32K |
| Childcare Workers | 24,380 | 12% | 5.9 million | $32K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 5,040 | 48% | 5.1 million | $40K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 160 smaller jobs (50,220 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Plan routines, choose appropriate music, and choose different movements for each set of muscles, depending on participants' capabilities and limitations.Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors15 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar.Bartenders14 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Oversee the purchase, planning, design, construction, and upkeep of recreation facilities and areas.Recreation Workers9.8 million hours60% of the task within reach
- Evaluate individuals' abilities, needs, and physical conditions, and develop suitable training programs to meet any special requirements.Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors6.9 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Plan physical education programs to promote development of participants' physical attributes and social skills.Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors6.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Evaluate recreation areas, facilities, and services to determine if they are producing desired results.Recreation Workers2.4 million hours60% of the task within reach
- Create developmentally appropriate lesson plans.Childcare Workers2.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General2.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Monitor participants' progress and adapt programs as needed.Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors2.2 million hours40% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative support tasks, such as proofreading, transcribing handwritten information, or operating calculators or computers to work with pay records, invoices, balance sheets, or other documents.Receptionists and Information Clerks2.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Civic and Social Organizations is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 31% of the paid hours in Civic and Social Organizations are within reach of AI models now and 36% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (35% to 36% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Civic and Social Organizations carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors (31,360 people, 48% of their time, about 31 million hours a year); Bartenders (39,060 people, 20% of their time, about 16 million hours a year); and Recreation Workers (26,010 people, 27% of their time, about 15 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Civic and Social Organizations carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Plan routines, choose appropriate music, and choose different movements for each set of muscles, depending on participants' capabilities and limitations (Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors, about 15 million hours a year); Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar (Bartenders, about 14 million hours a year); and Oversee the purchase, planning, design, construction, and upkeep of recreation facilities and areas (Recreation Workers, about 9.8 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Civic and Social Organizations learn first?
- Among the 339,534 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the conversations (163,602 people); briefing a model and checking its drafts (129,088 people); and the hands-on craft (123,020 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 64% of their working time stays with people, 26% becomes checking a model's work and 10% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Civic and Social Organizations (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 97% of its people, and 95% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.