Industry group, 8134
Civic and Social Organizations
358,750 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $45,880 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 182 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 39%
- 16%
- 46%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 21% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 22%. Today's estimate: 25%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 86% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors | 31,360 | 57% | 37 million | $39K |
| Self-Enrichment Teachers | 12,310 | 54% | 14 million | $40K |
| Office Clerks, General | 9,330 | 54% | 11 million | $38K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 7,650 | 64% | 10 million | $34K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 5,220 | 78% | 8.4 million | $46K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 6,630 | 59% | 8.1 million | $32K |
| Recreation Workers | 26,010 | 14% | 7.8 million | $36K |
| Childcare Workers | 24,380 | 14% | 6.9 million | $32K |
| Bartenders | 39,060 | 8% | 6.3 million | $28K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 6,890 | 43% | 6.1 million | $45K |
| General and Operations Managers | 11,360 | 23% | 5.4 million | $83K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 5,040 | 40% | 4.2 million | $40K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 160 smaller jobs (50,220 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Plan routines, choose appropriate music, and choose different movements for each set of muscles, depending on participants' capabilities and limitations.Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors15 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar.Bartenders14 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Evaluate individuals' abilities, needs, and physical conditions, and develop suitable training programs to meet any special requirements.Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors14 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan physical education programs to promote development of participants' physical attributes and social skills.Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors6.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Monitor participants' progress and adapt programs as needed.Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors5.5 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Assess the needs and interests of individuals and groups and plan activities accordingly, given the available equipment or facilities.Recreation Workers4.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform general personnel functions, such as supervision, training, and scheduling.Childcare Workers3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Adapt teaching methods and instructional materials to meet students' varying needs and interests.Self-Enrichment Teachers2.8 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Provide assistance with staff selection, training, and supervision.Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service Workers2.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Provide students with information and resources regarding nutrition, weight control, and lifestyle issues.Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors2.5 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works