Industry group, 6111
Elementary and Secondary Schools
8,919,090 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $64,300 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 5.3 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 32%
- 48%
- 20%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 19% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 8,661,896 people in jobs so far, 97% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 4.3 billion hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 995 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 805 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 26%
- 6%
- 5%
- 43%
- 19%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 8,661,896 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The conversations6,181,265 (71%)
- Signing off under your license3,994,040 (46%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization1,927,010 (22%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself1,266,866 (15%)
- The hands-on craft1,211,925 (14%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts1,093,967 (13%)
- Judgment where errors are severe841,638 (10%)
- Running AI inside the business systems477,650 (6%)
- Handling protected records360 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 20%. Today's estimate: 29%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 30% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 17% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 14% in a purpose-built cell, 3% in a structured facility. 0.20 of 3.
- Not physical 70%
- No robot shown 13%
- In a purpose-built cell 14%
- In a structured facility 3%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 92% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 1,381,960 | 35% | 997 million | $64K |
| Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education | 1,055,050 | 40% | 869 million | $72K |
| Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education | 618,660 | 43% | 556 million | $64K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 216,820 | 59% | 265 million | $47K |
| Education Administrators, Kindergarten through Secondary | 322,020 | 29% | 192 million | $106K |
| Office Clerks, General | 127,260 | 56% | 150 million | $43K |
| Special Education Teachers, Secondary School | 158,870 | 36% | 117 million | $75K |
| Special Education Teachers, Elementary School | 129,340 | 40% | 108 million | $65K |
| Educational, Guidance, and Career Counselors and Advisors | 173,950 | 29% | 106 million | $77K |
| Teaching Assistants, Preschool, Elementary, Middle, and Secondary School, Except Special Education | 592,750 | 8% | 97 million | $37K |
| Special Education Teachers, Kindergarten | 129,340 | 34% | 92 million | $65K |
| Instructional Coordinators | 103,770 | 39% | 85 million | $81K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 281 smaller jobs (712,190 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Prepare objectives and outlines for courses of study, following curriculum guidelines or requirements of states and schools.Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education217 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare objectives and outlines for courses of study, following curriculum guidelines or requirements of states and schools.Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education173 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Adapt teaching methods and instructional materials to meet students' varying needs and interests.Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education164 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Adapt teaching methods and instructional materials to meet students' varying needs and interests.Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education100 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Prepare objectives and outlines for courses of study, following curriculum guidelines or requirements of states and schools.Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education94 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Assign and grade class work and homework.Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education94 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Plan and conduct activities for a balanced program of instruction, demonstration, and work time that provides students with opportunities to observe, question, and investigate.Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education80 million hours30% of the task within reach
- Assign and grade class work and homework.Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education73 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Prepare, administer, and grade tests and assignments to evaluate students' progress.Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education73 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Prepare, administer, and grade tests and assignments to evaluate students' progress.Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education70 million hours70% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools3,216,330 people38% now, 54% by 2028
- Junior Colleges656,220 people38% now, 53% by 2028
- Other Schools and Instruction558,700 people37% now, 41% by 2028
- Educational Support Services265,600 people39% now, 51% by 2028
- Technical and Trade Schools153,950 people40% now, 51% by 2028
- Business Schools and Computer and Management Training82,160 people48% now, 65% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Elementary and Secondary Schools is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 29% of the paid hours in Elementary and Secondary Schools are within reach of AI models now and 32% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Elementary and Secondary Schools carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education (1,381,960 people, 35% of their time, about 997 million hours a year); Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education (1,055,050 people, 40% of their time, about 869 million hours a year); and Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education (618,660 people, 43% of their time, about 556 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Elementary and Secondary Schools carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Prepare objectives and outlines for courses of study, following curriculum guidelines or requirements of states and schools (Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education, about 217 million hours a year); Prepare objectives and outlines for courses of study, following curriculum guidelines or requirements of states and schools (Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education, about 173 million hours a year); and Adapt teaching methods and instructional materials to meet students' varying needs and interests (Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education, about 164 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Elementary and Secondary Schools learn first?
- Among the 8,661,896 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the conversations (6,181,265 people); signing off under your license (3,994,040 people); and dealing with people outside the organization (1,927,010 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 67% of their working time stays with people, 24% becomes checking a model's work and 7% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Elementary and Secondary Schools (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 98% of its people, and 97% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.