Subsector, 611
Educational Services
13,852,050 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $69,850 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 9 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 40%
- 42%
- 18%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 21% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 12,535,863 people in jobs so far, 91% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 6.5 billion hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 1.7 billion hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 1.6 billion hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 31%
- 7%
- 8%
- 36%
- 18%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 12,535,863 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The conversations7,214,553 (58%)
- Signing off under your license4,121,982 (33%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself3,509,685 (28%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts3,479,768 (28%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization2,295,990 (18%)
- The hands-on craft1,796,142 (14%)
- Judgment where errors are severe1,252,987 (10%)
- Running AI inside the business systems970,050 (8%)
- Handling protected records3,360 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 32%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 26% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 15% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 12% in a purpose-built cell, 3% in a structured facility. 0.18 of 3.
- Not physical 74%
- No robot shown 12%
- In a purpose-built cell 12%
- In a structured facility 3%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 75% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 1,383,430 | 35% | 999 million | $64K |
| Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education | 1,060,270 | 40% | 873 million | $72K |
| Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education | 619,100 | 43% | 556 million | $64K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 346,670 | 59% | 423 million | $47K |
| Office Clerks, General | 325,490 | 56% | 383 million | $40K |
| Educational, Guidance, and Career Counselors and Advisors | 319,060 | 29% | 194 million | $66K |
| Education Administrators, Kindergarten through Secondary | 323,630 | 29% | 193 million | $106K |
| Self-Enrichment Teachers | 213,650 | 40% | 176 million | $47K |
| Instructional Coordinators | 184,680 | 39% | 151 million | $78K |
| Teaching Assistants, Postsecondary | 162,620 | 38% | 128 million | $43K |
| Special Education Teachers, Secondary School | 160,600 | 36% | 119 million | $74K |
| Coaches and Scouts | 172,670 | 33% | 118 million | $47K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 577 smaller jobs (3,298,250 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 96% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Prepare objectives and outlines for courses of study, following curriculum guidelines or requirements of states and schools.Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education217 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare objectives and outlines for courses of study, following curriculum guidelines or requirements of states and schools.Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education174 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Adapt teaching methods and instructional materials to meet students' varying needs and interests.Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education164 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Adapt teaching methods and instructional materials to meet students' varying needs and interests.Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education100 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Prepare objectives and outlines for courses of study, following curriculum guidelines or requirements of states and schools.Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education95 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Assign and grade class work and homework.Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education94 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Coordinate conferences, meetings, or special events, such as luncheons or graduation ceremonies.Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive85 million hours60% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General82 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and conduct activities for a balanced program of instruction, demonstration, and work time that provides students with opportunities to observe, question, and investigate.Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education80 million hours30% of the task within reach
- Assign and grade class work and homework.Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education74 million hours80% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Elementary and Secondary Schools8,919,090 people29% now, 32% by 2028
- Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools3,216,330 people38% now, 54% by 2028
- Junior Colleges656,220 people38% now, 53% by 2028
- Other Schools and Instruction558,700 people37% now, 41% by 2028
- Educational Support Services265,600 people39% now, 51% by 2028
- Technical and Trade Schools153,950 people40% now, 51% by 2028
- Business Schools and Computer and Management Training82,160 people48% now, 65% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Educational Services is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 32% of the paid hours in Educational Services are within reach of AI models now and 39% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (37% to 40% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Educational Services carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education (1,383,430 people, 35% of their time, about 999 million hours a year); Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education (1,060,270 people, 40% of their time, about 873 million hours a year); and Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education (619,100 people, 43% of their time, about 556 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Educational Services carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Prepare objectives and outlines for courses of study, following curriculum guidelines or requirements of states and schools (Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education, about 217 million hours a year); Prepare objectives and outlines for courses of study, following curriculum guidelines or requirements of states and schools (Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education, about 174 million hours a year); and Adapt teaching methods and instructional materials to meet students' varying needs and interests (Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education, about 164 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Educational Services learn first?
- Among the 12,535,863 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the conversations (7,214,553 people); signing off under your license (4,121,982 people); and reviewing work you did not do yourself (3,509,685 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 61% of their working time stays with people, 28% becomes checking a model's work and 9% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Educational Services (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 96% of its people, and 91% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.