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STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
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Industry group, 6243

Vocational Rehabilitation Services

283,400 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $46,100 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.

now
27%

of the paid hours. Estimate.

$4.8B

a year: 151 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.

Kinds of work
  • 39%
  • 21%
  • 40%
3%

of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 24% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.

Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.

Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 39% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 24%. Today's estimate: 27%.

0%10%20%30%40%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 1% within reacho3, April 2025: 5% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 7% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 10% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 10% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 12% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 13% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 24% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 27% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

Where the hours are

Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 84% of the people.

PeoplePay here
Rehabilitation Counselors33,40066%46 million$45K
Social and Human Service Assistants11,10044%10 million$41K
Personal Care Aides28,48510%5.7 million$37K
Customer Service Representatives4,04064%5.4 million$39K
Office Clerks, General4,39054%5 million$39K
Home Health Aides28,4857%4.3 million$37K
Social and Community Service Managers8,37024%4.1 million$72K
Educational, Guidance, and Career Counselors and Advisors5,63034%4 million$47K
Retail Salespersons8,62019%3.5 million$29K
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks2,10078%3.4 million$49K
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive3,57043%3.2 million$44K
Human Resources Specialists3,68039%3 million$56K

People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 167 smaller jobs (42,080 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 95% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.

The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028

Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.

  1. Develop rehabilitation plans that fit clients' aptitudes, education levels, physical abilities, and career goals.Rehabilitation Counselors
    13 million hours100% of the task within reach
  2. Analyze information from interviews, educational and medical records, consultation with other professionals, and diagnostic evaluations to assess clients' abilities, needs, and eligibility for services.Rehabilitation Counselors
    11 million hours100% of the task within reach
  3. Prepare and maintain records and case files, including documentation, such as clients' personal and eligibility information, services provided, narratives of client contacts, or relevant correspondence.Rehabilitation Counselors
    6 million hours100% of the task within reach
  4. Locate barriers to client employment, such as inaccessible work sites, inflexible schedules, or transportation problems, and work with clients to develop strategies for overcoming these barriers.Rehabilitation Counselors
    5.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
  5. Participate in job development and placement programs, contacting prospective employers, placing clients in jobs, and evaluating the success of placements.Rehabilitation Counselors
    5 million hours100% of the task within reach
  6. Establish and oversee administrative procedures to meet objectives set by boards of directors or senior management.Social and Community Service Managers
    3.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
  7. Manage budgets and direct case service allocations, authorizing expenditures and payments.Rehabilitation Counselors
    3.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
  8. Assess clients' cognitive abilities and physical and emotional needs to determine appropriate interventions.Social and Human Service Assistants
    2.8 million hours100% of the task within reach
  9. Research and analyze member or community needs to determine program directions and goals.Social and Community Service Managers
    2.5 million hours94% of the task within reach
  10. Assist in locating housing for displaced individuals.Social and Human Service Assistants
    2.4 million hours100% of the task within reach

Scan a typical company in this industry

The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.

Next to this industry

Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works