Subway and Streetcar Operators
In short: today's best AI models could do about 4% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 96% of the time, stays with people.
Operate subway or elevated suburban trains with no separate locomotive, or electric-powered streetcar, to transport passengers. May handle fares.
10,200 people do this job in the US. $86,380 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on1 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people39 h
Subway and Streetcar Operators, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 1 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 39 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Complete reports, including shift summaries and incident or accident reports (about 1 h); Attend meetings on driver and passenger safety to learn ways in which job performance might be affected (under an hour).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 4%
- 0%
- 96%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 4%. Today's estimate: 4%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 10 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.0084% to 0.0037% (released February and March 2025); 0.011% to 0.018% (August 2025 to February 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.0084% | 551 of 708 | 1 of 10 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.0037% | 614 of 703 | 1 of 10 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.011% | 447 of 655 | 1 of 10 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.014% | 437 of 672 | 1 of 10 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.018% | 414 of 677 | 1 of 10 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 10 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 10 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 71% of this job's working time as physical work. For 71% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 71% in a structured facility. 1.42 of 3, the 25th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 29%
- In a structured facility 71%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 10 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monitor lights indicating obstructions or other trains ahead and watch for car and truck traffic at crossings to stay alert to potential hazards.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 35% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Drive and control rail-guided public transportation, such as subways, elevated trains, and electric-powered streetcars, trams, or trolleys, to transport passengers.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Skyline (Honolulu rail transit), Hitachi Rail GoA4 automated metro (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 27% | 38 min17 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Regulate vehicle speed and the time spent at each stop to maintain schedules.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Copenhagen Metro (Metroselskabet / Hitachi Rail driverless CBTC) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 27% | 38 min17 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Complete reports, including shift summaries and incident or accident reports.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Greet passengers, provide information, and answer questions concerning fares, schedules, transfers, and routings.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 2% | 4 min2 min to 13 min | Stays with people | |
| Direct emergency evacuation procedures.Done yearly or less by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Report delays, mechanical problems, and emergencies to supervisors or dispatchers, using radios.Done daily by most who do it. | 1% | 4 min2 min to 13 min | Stays with people | |
| Attend meetings on driver and passenger safety to learn ways in which job performance might be affected.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 1% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Make announcements to passengers, such as notifications of upcoming stops or schedule delays.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 0.9% | 2 min1 min to 4 min | Stays with people | |
| Operate controls to open and close transit vehicle doors.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Skyline (Honolulu), Hitachi Rail GoA4 driverless metro (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 0.7% | 1 min1 min to 2 min | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Locomotive Engineers3% now, 3% by 2028
- Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters33% now, 33% by 2028
- Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity7% now, 7% by 2028
- Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers7% now, 7% by 2028
- Taxi Drivers20% now, 20% by 2028
- Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers12% now, 12% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Subway and Streetcar Operators is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 4% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 4% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Subway and Streetcar Operators come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Complete reports, including shift summaries and incident or accident reports (100% of the task's time now); and Attend meetings on driver and passenger safety to learn ways in which job performance might be affected (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Subway and Streetcar Operators stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Monitor lights indicating obstructions or other trains ahead and watch for car and truck traffic at crossings to stay alert to potential hazards; Drive and control rail-guided public transportation, such as subways, elevated trains, and electric-powered streetcars, trams, or trolleys, to transport passengers; and Regulate vehicle speed and the time spent at each stop to maintain schedules. Together such tasks are about 96% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Subway and Streetcar Operators?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Subway and Streetcar Operators?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 71% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 71% of the working time, 71% in a structured facility. Its index is 1.42 of 3. One example: Skyline (Honolulu rail transit), Hitachi Rail GoA4 automated metro for "drive and control rail-guided public transportation, such as subways, elevated trains, and electric-powered streetcars, trams, or trolleys, to transport passengers". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 10 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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