Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 7% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 93% of the time, stays with people.
Operate or monitor railroad track switches or locomotive instruments. May couple or uncouple rolling stock to make up or break up trains. Watch for and relay traffic signals. May inspect couplings, air hoses, journal boxes, and hand brakes. May watch for dragging equipment or obstacles on rights-of-way.
12,400 people do this job in the US. $68,840 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on3 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people37 h
Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 3 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 37 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Receive oral or written instructions from yardmasters or yard conductors indicating track assignments and cars to be switched (about 1 h); Record numbers of cars available, numbers of cars sent to repair stations, and types of service needed (about 1 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 7%
- 0%
- 93%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 7%. Today's estimate: 7%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
None of this job's 25 tasks showed up in the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled in any of its 7 releases, from February 2025 to May 2026.
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 56% of this job's working time as physical work. For 47% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 34% in a purpose-built cell, 13% in a structured facility. 0.60 of 3, the 282nd highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 44%
- No robot shown 9%
- In a purpose-built cell 34%
- In a structured facility 13%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 25 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inspect tracks, cars, and engines for defects and to determine service needs, sending engines and cars for repairs as necessary.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Duos Technologies Railcar Inspection Portal (RIP) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 23% | 50 min17 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Inspect couplings, air hoses, journal boxes, and handbrakes to ensure that they are securely fastened and functioning properly.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Digital Train Inspection (DTI) portal / Machine Vision Inspection (Norfolk Southern) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 10% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | Stays with people | |
| Conduct brake tests to determine the condition of brakes on trains.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, WaggonTracker Automated Brake Test (PJ Monitoring GmbH (PJM), with SBB Cargo and Rail Cargo Austria; offered on Transwaggon and Tatravagónka wagons) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 8% | 25 min13 min to 1.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Operate and drive locomotives, diesel switch engines, dinkey engines, flatcars, and railcars in train yards and at industrial sites.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a structured facility, Intelligent molten iron transport system (driverless plant locomotives) (Liuzhou Steel Group with Huawei and China Mobile Guangxi) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 38 min13 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Observe tracks from left sides of locomotives to detect obstructions on tracks.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 13 min4 min to 38 min | Stays with people | |
| Monitor trains as they go around curves to detect dragging equipment and smoking journal boxes.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Wayside defect detectors (hot bearing detectors / dragging equipment detectors) (Class I railroads / detector suppliers) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 13 min4 min to 33 min | Stays with people | |
| Make minor repairs to couplings, air hoses, and journal boxes, using hand tools.Done more than yearly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 25 min8 min to 50 min | Stays with people | |
| Receive oral or written instructions from yardmasters or yard conductors indicating track assignments and cars to be switched.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 8 min3 min to 17 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Climb ladders to tops of cars to set brakes.Done hourly or more by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Autonomous brake-bleeding robot (mobile base + manipulator) (GE Global Research) (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 7 min3 min to 13 min | Stays with people | |
| Inspect locomotives to detect damaged or worn parts.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Duos Technologies Railcar Inspection Portal (rip®) AI detection models (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 33 min13 min to 58 min | Stays with people | |
| Record numbers of cars available, numbers of cars sent to repair stations, and types of service needed.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 13 min4 min to 25 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Observe train signals along routes and verify their meanings for engineers.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 7 min3 min to 13 min | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Locomotive Engineers3% now, 3% by 2028
- Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers12% now, 12% by 2028
- Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters33% now, 33% by 2028
- Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists2% now, 2% by 2028
- Hoist and Winch Operators0% now, 0% by 2028
- Signal and Track Switch Repairers4% now, 4% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 7% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 7% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Receive oral or written instructions from yardmasters or yard conductors indicating track assignments and cars to be switched (100% of the task's time now); and Record numbers of cars available, numbers of cars sent to repair stations, and types of service needed (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Inspect tracks, cars, and engines for defects and to determine service needs, sending engines and cars for repairs as necessary; Inspect couplings, air hoses, journal boxes, and handbrakes to ensure that they are securely fastened and functioning properly; and Conduct brake tests to determine the condition of brakes on trains. Together such tasks are about 93% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 56% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 47% of the working time, 13% in a structured facility. Its index is 0.60 of 3. One example: WaggonTracker Automated Brake Test for "conduct brake tests to determine the condition of brakes on trains". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 25 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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