Locomotive Engineers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 3% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 97% of the time, stays with people.
Drive electric, diesel-electric, steam, or gas-turbine-electric locomotives to transport passengers or freight. Interpret train orders, electronic or manual signals, and railroad rules and regulations.
33,470 people do this job in the US. $81,410 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on1 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people39 h
Locomotive Engineers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 1 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 39 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Interpret train orders, signals, or railroad rules and regulations that govern the operation of locomotives (under an hour).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 3%
- 1%
- 96%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 3%. Today's estimate: 3%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 15 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.0054% to 0.0038% (released February and March 2025).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.0054% | 597 of 708 | 1 of 15 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.0038% | 609 of 703 | 1 of 15 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | none | n/a | 0 of 15 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 15 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 15 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 15 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 15 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 48% of this job's working time as physical work. For 43% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 1% in a purpose-built cell, 42% in a structured facility. 0.85 of 3, the 205th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 52%
- No robot shown 5%
- In a purpose-built cell 1%
- In a structured facility 42%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 15 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receive starting signals from conductors and use controls such as throttles or air brakes to drive electric, diesel-electric, steam, or gas turbine-electric locomotives.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, AutoHaul (Rio Tinto / Hitachi Rail STS, Wabtec onboard controller) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 22% | 1.7 h25 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Monitor gauges or meters that measure speed, amperage, battery charge, or air pressure in brake lines or in main reservoirs.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 22% | 1.7 h25 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Observe tracks to detect obstructions.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 22% | 1.7 h25 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Operate locomotives to transport freight or passengers between stations or to assemble or disassemble trains within rail yards.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, AutoHaul (Rio Tinto / Hitachi Rail STS) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 22% | 3.3 h50 min to 1 work day | Stays with people | |
| Interpret train orders, signals, or railroad rules and regulations that govern the operation of locomotives.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 2% | 13 min4 min to 38 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Inspect locomotives after runs to detect damaged or defective equipment.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, TVIS2000 train bottom inspection robot (Hangzhou Shenhao Technology) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 42 min17 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Inspect locomotives to verify adequate fuel, sand, water, or other supplies before each run or to check for mechanical problems.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 38 min17 min to 1.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Confer with conductors or traffic control center personnel via radiophones to issue or receive information concerning stops, delays, or oncoming trains.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 1% | 8 min3 min to 25 min | Stays with people | |
| Check to ensure that brake examination tests are conducted at shunting stations.Done daily by most who do it. | 1% | 25 min13 min to 1.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Monitor train loading procedures to ensure that freight or rolling stock are loaded or unloaded without damage.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, AutoHaul (Rio Tinto / Hitachi Rail STS) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 1% | 50 min17 min to 2.1 h | Stays with people | |
| Respond to emergency conditions or breakdowns, following applicable safety procedures and rules.Done more than yearly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 1% | 50 min13 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Prepare reports regarding any problems encountered, such as accidents, signaling problems, unscheduled stops, or delays.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 0.6% | 33 min13 min to 1.3 h | 100%Half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers7% now, 7% by 2028
- Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters33% now, 33% by 2028
- Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers12% now, 12% by 2028
- Subway and Streetcar Operators4% now, 4% by 2028
- Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists2% now, 2% by 2028
- Transportation Vehicle, Equipment and Systems Inspectors, Except Aviation25% now, 29% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Locomotive Engineers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 3% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 3% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Locomotive Engineers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Interpret train orders, signals, or railroad rules and regulations that govern the operation of locomotives (100% of the task's time now); and Prepare reports regarding any problems encountered, such as accidents, signaling problems, unscheduled stops, or delays (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Locomotive Engineers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Receive starting signals from conductors and use controls such as throttles or air brakes to drive electric, diesel-electric, steam, or gas turbine-electric locomotives; Monitor gauges or meters that measure speed, amperage, battery charge, or air pressure in brake lines or in main reservoirs; and Observe tracks to detect obstructions. Together such tasks are about 97% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Locomotive Engineers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Locomotive Engineers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 48% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 43% of the working time, 42% in a structured facility. Its index is 0.85 of 3. One example: AutoHaul (Rio Tinto / Hitachi Rail STS, Wabtec onboard controller) for "receive starting signals from conductors and use controls such as throttles or air brakes to drive electric, diesel-electric, steam, or gas turbine-electric locomotives". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 15 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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