Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists
In short: today's best AI models could do about 2% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 98% of the time, stays with people.
Diagnose, adjust, repair, or overhaul buses and trucks, or maintain and repair any type of diesel engines. Includes mechanics working primarily with automobile or marine diesel engines.
289,960 people do this job in the US. $61,770 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on0 h
- A person checks AI's work1 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people39 h
Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 0 hours, 1 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 39 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Repair emissions controls (under an hour, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 0%
- 2%
- 0%
- 0%
- 98%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 2% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 1%. Today's estimate: 2%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 26 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.04% to 0.0082% (released February and March 2025); 0.0073% to 0.0017% (August 2025 to February 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.04% | 306 of 708 | 2 of 26 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.0082% | 532 of 703 | 1 of 26 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.0073% | 492 of 655 | 1 of 26 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.0023% | 637 of 672 | 1 of 26 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.0017% | 660 of 677 | 1 of 26 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 26 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 26 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 100% of this job's working time as physical work. For 13% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 13% in a purpose-built cell. 0.13 of 3, the 498th highest of the 923 jobs.
- No robot shown 88%
- In a purpose-built cell 13%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
98% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Use hand and power tools, the hands-on work, 8%
- Change and repair tires, the hands-on work, 7%
- Reline brakes and align wheels, the hands-on work, 7%
- Recondition engine parts, the hands-on work, 6%
- Overhaul engines and transmissions, the hands-on work, 6%
- Repair emissions controls, the hands-on work, 6%
What becomes checking the machine
2% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it.
- Repair emissions controls, costly if wrong, 2%
What to learn
- The hands-on craft. About 98% of the time is hands-on work, which no model here does; robots are rated separately on this page.
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 26 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Use handtools, such as screwdrivers, pliers, wrenches, pressure gauges, or precision instruments, as well as power tools, such as pneumatic wrenches, lathes, welding equipment, or jacks and hoists.Tool work by hand.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 8% | 25 min8 min to 1.7 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Adjust or repair computer controlled exhaust emissions devices.Work on the device and its controller.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 8% | 2.1 h50 min to 5 h | Hands-on 80%, systems 20% | 20%Desk part half by now |
| Dismount, mount, and repair or replace tires.Tire work by hand and machine.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 1.3 h25 min to 2.5 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Adjust and reline brakes, align wheels, tighten bolts and screws, and reassemble equipment.Brake and alignment work by hand.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 1.7 h38 min to 3.3 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Recondition and replace parts, pistons, bearings, gears, and valves.Hands-on rebuilding.Done yearly or less by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 4.2 h1.7 h to 1.3 work days | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Disassemble and overhaul internal combustion engines, pumps, generators, transmissions, clutches, and differential units.Stripping and rebuilding by hand.Done more than yearly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Diagnose and repair vehicle heating and cooling systems.Diagnosis and repair at the vehicle.Done more than weekly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 2.1 h50 min to 5 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Specialize in repairing and maintaining parts of the engine, such as fuel injection systems.Hands-on engine work.Done yearly or less by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 2.5 h1.3 h to 6.7 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Rewire ignition systems, lights, and instrument panels.Electrical work by hand.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 2.1 h50 min to 5 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Inspect brake systems, steering mechanisms, wheel bearings, and other important parts to ensure that they are in proper operating condition.Looking over the safety systems by hand.Done more than weekly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Inspect, repair, and maintain automotive and mechanical equipment and machinery, such as pumps and compressors.Hands-on repair.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 1.7 h38 min to 4.2 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Inspect, test, and listen to defective equipment to diagnose malfunctions, using test instruments such as handheld computers, motor analyzers, chassis charts, or pressure gauges.Testing and listening at the vehicle with the analyzers.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 1.1 h25 min to 2.5 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except Engines6% now, 6% by 2028
- Rail Car Repairers3% now, 3% by 2028
- Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics3% now, 3% by 2028
- Motorboat Mechanics and Service Technicians3% now, 3% by 2028
- Outdoor Power Equipment and Other Small Engine Mechanics8% now, 8% by 2028
- Engine and Other Machine Assemblers9% now, 9% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 2% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 2% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Repair emissions controls (20% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Use hand and power tools; Change and repair tires; and Reline brakes and align wheels. Together such tasks are about 92% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are the hands-on craft; judgment where errors are severe; and reviewing work you did not do yourself. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 98% of the working time stays with people, 2% becomes checking a model's work and 0% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 100% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 13% of the working time. Its index is 0.13 of 3. One example: STÄHLE SAP2000 Modular autopilot / steering and shift robots for "test drive vehicles". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 26 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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