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Rail Car Repairers

Diagnose, adjust, repair, or overhaul railroad rolling stock, mine cars, or mass transit rail cars.

21,350 people do this job in the US. $67,530 a year.

now
3%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 3%
  • 0%
  • 97%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 3% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 3%. Today's estimate: 3%.

0%5%10%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 2% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 2% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 2% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 2% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 2% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 3% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 3% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 3% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 20 tasks from .

TaskKind
Remove locomotives, car mechanical units, or other components, using pneumatic hoists and jacks, pinch bars, hand tools, and cutting torches.Done daily by most who do it. 19%2.5 h50 min to 5 hStays with people
Repair or replace defective or worn parts such as bearings, pistons, and gears, using hand tools, torque wrenches, power tools, and welding equipment.Done daily by most who do it. 16%2.5 h50 min to 6.7 hStays with people
Paint car exteriors, interiors, and fixtures.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 16%4.2 h1.7 h to 1 work dayStays with people
Perform scheduled maintenance, and clean units and components.Done daily by most who do it. 7%1.7 h25 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Repair, fabricate, and install steel or wood fittings, using blueprints, shop sketches, and instruction manuals.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 7%2.1 h50 min to 5 hStays with people
Inspect components such as bearings, seals, gaskets, wheels, and coupler assemblies to determine if repairs are needed.Done daily by most who do it. 6%38 min17 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Align car sides for installation of car ends and crossties, using width gauges, turnbuckles, and wrenches.Done yearly or less by most who do it.6%1.7 h38 min to 4.2 hStays with people
Inspect the interior and exterior of rail cars coming into rail yards to identify defects and to determine the extent of wear and damage.Done daily by most who do it. 4%38 min17 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Adjust repaired or replaced units as needed to ensure proper operation.Done daily by most who do it. 3%38 min13 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Test units for operability before and after repairs.Done daily by most who do it. 3%38 min17 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Repair and maintain electrical and electronic controls for propulsion and braking systems.Done more than weekly by most who do it.3%1.7 h38 min to 4.2 hStays with people
Examine car roofs for wear and damage, and repair defective sections, using roofing material, cement, nails, and waterproof paint.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 3%2.1 h50 min to 5 hStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).