Industry group, 3365
Railroad Rolling Stock Manufacturing
21,420 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $74,190 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 6.7 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 36%
- 12%
- 52%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 15% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 14%. Today's estimate: 16%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 92% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers | 2,280 | 16% | 773,012 | $53K |
| Team Assemblers | 3,460 | 10% | 748,468 | $49K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | 690 | 32% | 457,830 | $78K |
| Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers | 880 | 24% | 441,127 | $61K |
| Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks | 210 | 63% | 276,932 | $61K |
| Project Management Specialists | 400 | 33% | 275,393 | $133K |
| Industrial Engineers | 720 | 16% | 239,619 | $91K |
| Machinists | 1,000 | 11% | 237,122 | $51K |
| Industrial Production Managers | 390 | 24% | 195,500 | $118K |
| Mechanical Engineers | 1,180 | 7% | 171,810 | $116K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 200 | 36% | 148,928 | $105K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 90 | 78% | 145,267 | $57K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 54 smaller jobs (1,660 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 92% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Develop templates and models for welding projects, using mathematical calculations based on blueprint information.Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers320,966 hours100% of the task within reach
- Determine required equipment and welding methods, applying knowledge of metallurgy, geometry, and welding techniques.Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers310,959 hours100% of the task within reach
- Review work orders and blueprints to ensure work is performed according to specifications.Team Assemblers305,972 hours50% of the task within reach
- Complete production reports to communicate team production level to management.Team Assemblers246,922 hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and establish sequence of operations to fabricate and assemble parts or products and to promote efficient utilization.Industrial Engineers240,338 hours99% of the task within reach
- Determine work assignments and procedures.Team Assemblers221,014 hours50% of the task within reach
- Design fixtures, tooling, or experimental parts to meet special engineering needs.Machinists207,802 hours100% of the task within reach
- Recommend methods for improving utilization of personnel, material, and utilities.Industrial Engineers182,730 hours99% of the task within reach
- Analyze engineering drawings, blueprints, specifications, sketches, work orders, and material safety data sheets to plan layout, assembly, and operations.Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers163,423 hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers161,891 hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing563,460 people17% now, 46% by 2028
- Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing538,980 people16% now, 29% by 2028
- Motor Vehicle Manufacturing284,300 people14% now, 24% by 2028
- Motor Vehicle Body and Trailer Manufacturing158,670 people17% now, 25% by 2028
- Ship and Boat Building149,030 people16% now, 30% by 2028
- Other Transportation Equipment Manufacturing37,900 people19% now, 33% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works