Sector, 31-33
Manufacturing
12,654,310 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $69,130 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 4.9 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 35%
- 5%
- 59%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 16% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 16%. Today's estimate: 19%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 63% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Assemblers | 1,074,240 | 18% | 391 million | $46K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | 491,210 | 35% | 354 million | $75K |
| Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers | 382,920 | 28% | 221 million | $49K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 228,570 | 44% | 210 million | $77K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 230,110 | 43% | 205 million | $47K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 127,940 | 67% | 177 million | $50K |
| Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks | 123,160 | 63% | 162 million | $61K |
| Office Clerks, General | 122,750 | 58% | 149 million | $47K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 91,710 | 76% | 146 million | $53K |
| General and Operations Managers | 249,060 | 19% | 96 million | $131K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 400,040 | 11% | 93 million | $43K |
| Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers | 274,710 | 16% | 93 million | $51K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 509 smaller jobs (4,577,170 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Review work orders and blueprints to ensure work is performed according to specifications.Team Assemblers190 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and develop new products and production processes.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers147 million hours96% of the task within reach
- Determine work assignments and procedures.Team Assemblers137 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers115 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and establish sequence of operations to fabricate and assemble parts or products and to promote efficient utilization.Industrial Engineers83 million hours99% of the task within reach
- Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers78 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete production reports to communicate team production level to management.Team Assemblers77 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Write test or inspection reports describing results, recommendations, or needed repairs.Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers68 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Recommend methods for improving utilization of personnel, material, and utilities.Industrial Engineers63 million hours99% of the task within reach
- Prepare documents, such as work orders, bills of lading, or shipping orders, to route materials.Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks61 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Food Manufacturing1,778,490 people14% now, 23% by 2028
- Transportation Equipment Manufacturing1,753,760 people18% now, 36% by 2028
- Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing1,436,510 people21% now, 33% by 2028
- Machinery Manufacturing1,092,170 people21% now, 40% by 2028
- Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing1,002,320 people20% now, 51% by 2028
- Chemical Manufacturing889,150 people20% now, 39% by 2028
- Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing705,590 people18% now, 29% by 2028
- Miscellaneous Manufacturing616,780 people22% now, 40% by 2028
- Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing425,210 people20% now, 37% by 2028
- Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing414,630 people18% now, 27% by 2028
- Wood Product Manufacturing406,580 people17% now, 24% by 2028
- Primary Metal Manufacturing364,190 people18% now, 29% by 2028
- Printing and Related Support Activities355,560 people29% now, 41% by 2028
- Paper Manufacturing353,210 people15% now, 25% by 2028
- Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing339,750 people20% now, 31% by 2028
- Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing329,940 people17% now, 28% by 2028
- Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing112,470 people23% now, 40% by 2028
- Textile Product Mills94,410 people18% now, 27% by 2028
- Apparel Manufacturing79,960 people19% now, 30% by 2028
- Textile Mills79,900 people16% now, 25% by 2028
- Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing23,760 people14% now, 21% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works