Subsector, 331
Primary Metal Manufacturing
364,190 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $65,910 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 130 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 30%
- 4%
- 66%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 15% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 16%. Today's estimate: 18%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 81% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | 19,350 | 35% | 14 million | $77K |
| Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers | 13,430 | 28% | 7.7 million | $55K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 6,860 | 43% | 6.1 million | $50K |
| Industrial Machinery Mechanics | 17,240 | 15% | 5.5 million | $70K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 5,490 | 44% | 5 million | $79K |
| Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic | 11,990 | 19% | 4.8 million | $51K |
| Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks | 3,400 | 63% | 4.5 million | $65K |
| Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic | 11,800 | 18% | 4.4 million | $47K |
| Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic | 14,660 | 14% | 4.2 million | $54K |
| Office Clerks, General | 2,870 | 58% | 3.5 million | $53K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 13,430 | 11% | 3.1 million | $45K |
| Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators | 5,810 | 25% | 3 million | $55K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 174 smaller jobs (67,070 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Plan and develop new products and production processes.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers5.8 million hours96% of the task within reach
- Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers4.5 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze test results, machine error messages, or information obtained from operators to diagnose equipment problems.Industrial Machinery Mechanics3.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers3.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain an inventory of materials.Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic2.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Write test or inspection reports describing results, recommendations, or needed repairs.Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers2.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and establish sequence of operations to fabricate and assemble parts or products and to promote efficient utilization.Industrial Engineers2.3 million hours99% of the task within reach
- Determine standards, budgets, production goals, and rates, based on company policies, equipment and labor availability, and workloads.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers2.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Design new equipment to aid in the repair or maintenance of machines, mechanical equipment, or building structures.Maintenance and Repair Workers, General2.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Recommend or implement measures to motivate employees and to improve production methods, equipment performance, product quality, or efficiency.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers2 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Foundries101,780 people16% now, 27% by 2028
- Iron and Steel Mills and Ferroalloy Manufacturing84,590 people18% now, 29% by 2028
- Nonferrous Metal (except Aluminum) Production and Processing61,420 people18% now, 31% by 2028
- Alumina and Aluminum Production and Processing58,320 people18% now, 29% by 2028
- Steel Product Manufacturing from Purchased Steel58,080 people19% now, 30% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works