Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
In short: today's best AI models could do about 14% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 86% of the time, stays with people.
Set up, operate, or tend machines to roll steel or plastic forming bends, beads, knurls, rolls, or plate, or to flatten, temper, or reduce gauge of material.
25,250 people do this job in the US. $50,140 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on5 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people35 h
Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 5 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 35 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Calculate draft space and roll speed for each mill stand to plan rolling sequences and specified dimensions and tempers (about 2 h); Read rolling orders, blueprints, and mill schedules to determine setup specifications, work sequences, product dimensions, and installation procedures (about 2 h); Select rolls, dies, roll stands, and chucks from data charts to form specified contours and to fabricate products (about 1 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 14%
- 0%
- 86%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 14%. Today's estimate: 14%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
None of this job's 19 tasks showed up in the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled in any of its 7 releases, from February 2025 to May 2026.
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 84% of this job's working time as physical work. For 83% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 70% in a purpose-built cell, 13% in a structured facility. 0.96 of 3, the 135th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 16%
- No robot shown 1%
- In a purpose-built cell 70%
- In a structured facility 13%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 19 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjust and correct machine set-ups to reduce thicknesses, reshape products, and eliminate product defects.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Primetals Hot Strip Mill Automation (AGC, Dynamic Profile Control, Contour and Flatness Optimizer) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 12% | 38 min13 min to 1.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Install equipment such as guides, guards, gears, cooling equipment, and rolls, using hand tools.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Amada HG 1003 ATC press brake automatic tool changer (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 10% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Position, align, and secure arbors, spindles, coils, mandrels, dies, and slitting knives.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Red Bud Industries Coil Prestage & Load System (in-line prestaging + coil car + dual stub/mandrel uncoiler) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 9% | 50 min17 min to 2.1 h | Stays with people | |
| Disassemble sizing mills removed from rolling lines, and sort and store parts.Done hourly or more by most who do it.Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 9% | 1.3 h38 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Monitor machine cycles and mill operation to detect jamming and to ensure that products conform to specifications.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, TrimRob (Primetals Technologies / Polytec) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 8% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | Stays with people | |
| Examine, inspect, and measure raw materials and finished products to verify conformance to specifications.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Mitutoyo MiSTAR robotic measurement cell (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 25 min8 min to 50 min | Stays with people | |
| Direct and train other workers to change rolls, operate mill equipment, remove coils and cobbles, and band and load material.Done daily by most who do it. | 6% | 50 min25 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Set distance points between rolls, guides, meters, and stops, according to specifications.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, DALLAN DUPLEX roll forming lines with COMBI toolheads (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 29 min13 min to 1.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Calculate draft space and roll speed for each mill stand to plan rolling sequences and specified dimensions and tempers.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 33 min13 min to 1.3 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Read rolling orders, blueprints, and mill schedules to determine setup specifications, work sequences, product dimensions, and installation procedures.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 4% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Start operation of rolling and milling machines to flatten, temper, form, and reduce sheet metal sections and to produce steel strips.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Baosteel 1580 smart hot rolling workshop (Schneider Electric EcoStruxure Plant automation) (Shanghai Baosteel / Schneider Electric) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 17 min8 min to 33 min | Stays with people | |
| Thread or feed sheets or rods through rolling mechanisms, or start and control mechanisms that automatically feed steel into rollers.Done hourly or more by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Haeusler EVO 4-roll plate bending machine with BENDtronic autonomous bending (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 17 min4 min to 42 min | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Cutting and Slicing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders7% now, 7% by 2028
- Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic6% now, 6% by 2028
- Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic10% now, 10% by 2028
- Milling and Planing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic18% now, 18% by 2028
- Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing9% now, 9% by 2028
- Grinding and Polishing Workers, Hand11% now, 11% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
- Iron and Steel Mills and Ferroalloy Manufacturing8,050 people
- Steel Product Manufacturing from Purchased Steel2,840 people
- Alumina and Aluminum Production and Processing2,250 people
- Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing (3321, 3322, 3325, 3326, and 3329 only)2,140 people
- Nonferrous Metal (except Aluminum) Production and Processing1,490 people
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 14% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 14% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Calculate draft space and roll speed for each mill stand to plan rolling sequences and specified dimensions and tempers (100% of the task's time now); Read rolling orders, blueprints, and mill schedules to determine setup specifications, work sequences, product dimensions, and installation procedures (100% of the task's time now); and Select rolls, dies, roll stands, and chucks from data charts to form specified contours and to fabricate products (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Adjust and correct machine set-ups to reduce thicknesses, reshape products, and eliminate product defects; Install equipment such as guides, guards, gears, cooling equipment, and rolls, using hand tools; and Position, align, and secure arbors, spindles, coils, mandrels, dies, and slitting knives. Together such tasks are about 86% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 84% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 83% of the working time, 13% in a structured facility. Its index is 0.96 of 3. One example: DALLAN DUPLEX roll forming lines with COMBI toolheads for "set distance points between rolls, guides, meters, and stops, according to specifications". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 19 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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