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STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
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Industry group, 3313

Alumina and Aluminum Production and Processing

58,320 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $66,670 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.

now
17%

of the paid hours. Estimate.

$922M

a year: 20 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.

Kinds of work
  • 29%
  • 8%
  • 64%
2%

of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 15% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.

Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.

Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 29% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 15%. Today's estimate: 17%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 1% within reacho3, April 2025: 4% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 6% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 8% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 8% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 9% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 9% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 15% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 17% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

Where the hours are

Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 84% of the people.

People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 98 smaller jobs (9,110 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 95% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.

The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028

Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.

  1. Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers
    724,991 hours100% of the task within reach
  2. 687,280 hours100% of the task within reach
  3. Plan and develop new products and production processes.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers
    646,816 hours67% of the task within reach
  4. Determine setup procedures and select machine dies and parts, according to specifications.Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
    574,038 hours100% of the task within reach
  5. Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers
    491,424 hours100% of the task within reach
  6. Analyze test results, machine error messages, or information obtained from operators to diagnose equipment problems.Industrial Machinery Mechanics
    442,963 hours100% of the task within reach
  7. Plan sequences of operations, applying knowledge of physical properties of workpiece materials.Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
    392,808 hours100% of the task within reach
  8. Determine standards, budgets, production goals, and rates, based on company policies, equipment and labor availability, and workloads.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers
    364,753 hours100% of the task within reach
  9. Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand
    342,621 hours100% of the task within reach
  10. Record production data, and maintain production logs.Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders
    342,536 hours100% of the task within reach

Scan a typical company in this industry

The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.

Next to this industry

Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works