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STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
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Industrial Production Managers

Plan, direct, or coordinate the work activities and resources necessary for manufacturing products in accordance with cost, quality, and quantity specifications.

246,250 people do this job in the US. $126,060 a year.

now
24%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 72%
  • 20%
  • 9%
1%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
March 2027

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 72% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 24%.

0%10%20%30%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 1% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 1% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 3% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 3% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 5% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 5% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 18% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 24% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 21 tasks from .

TaskKind
Develop or implement production tracking or quality control systems, analyzing production, quality control, maintenance, or other operational reports to detect production problems.Done daily by most who do it. 17%6.7 h1.7 h to 3.1 work days7%Half by Nov 2027
Direct or coordinate production, processing, distribution, or marketing activities of industrial organizations.Done daily by most who do it. 15%2.5 h50 min to 6.7 hStays with people
Initiate or coordinate inventory or cost control programs.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 13%6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days8%Half by Sep 2027
Optimize operational costs and productivity consistent with safety and environmental rules and regulations.6%5 h1.7 h to 2.1 work days15%Half by Jun 2027
Develop budgets or approve expenditures for supplies, materials, or human resources, ensuring that materials, labor, or equipment are used efficiently to meet production targets.Done daily by most who do it. 5%3.3 h50 min to 1.7 work days21%Half by May 2027
Review processing schedules or production orders to make decisions concerning inventory requirements, staffing requirements, work procedures, or duty assignments, considering budgetary limitations and time constraints.Done daily by most who do it. 5%1.3 h38 min to 2.5 h97%Half by now
Set and monitor product standards, examining samples of raw products or directing testing during processing, to ensure finished products are of prescribed quality.Done daily by most who do it. 5%1.3 h25 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Review operations and confer with technical or administrative staff to resolve production or processing problems.Done daily by most who do it. 4%1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h77%Half by now
Conduct site audits to ensure adherence to safety and environmental regulations.4%3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 hStays with people
Develop or enforce procedures for normal operation of manufacturing systems.4%3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days25%Half by Mar 2027
Implement operational and emergency procedures.3%2.5 h50 min to 1 work day40%Half by Dec 2026
Hire, train, evaluate, or discharge staff or resolve personnel grievances.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 3%1.7 h50 min to 5 hStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.