Industrial Production Managers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 51% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 68% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 32% of the time, stays with people.
Plan, direct, or coordinate the work activities and resources necessary for manufacturing products in accordance with cost, quality, and quantity specifications.
246,250 people do this job in the US. $126,060 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on0 h
- A person checks AI's work20 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet7 h
- Stays with people13 h
Industrial Production Managers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 0 hours, 20 hours become checking its work, 7 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 13 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Build tracking and quality systems (about 3 h, a person checks); Direct production (about 2 h, a person checks); Run inventory and cost control programs (about 2 h, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 60%
- 9%
- 11%
- 17%
- 4%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 51% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 51%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.011% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 380th largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 1 of its 21 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.015% to 0.0018% (released February and March 2025); 0.011% to 0.011% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.015% | 486 of 708 | 1 of 21 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.0018% | 678 of 703 | 1 of 21 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | none | n/a | 0 of 21 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 21 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 21 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.011% | 362 of 434 | 1 of 21 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.011% | 380 of 447 | 1 of 21 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 2% of this job's working time as physical work. For 0% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere. 0.00 of 3.
- Not physical 98%
- No robot shown 2%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
32% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Direct production, the in-person work, 9%
- Resolve production problems with staff, the in-person work, 4%
- Run inventory and cost control programs, the conversation, 4%
- Set and check product standards, the in-person work, 3%
- Audit the site for safety, the hands-on work, 2%
- Hire, evaluate and handle grievances, the conversation, 2%
What becomes checking the machine
67% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it.
- Build tracking and quality systems, costly if wrong, 17%
- Run inventory and cost control programs, costly if wrong, 9%
- Optimize costs and output, costly if wrong, 6%
- Direct production, costly if wrong, 6%
- Set budgets and approve spending, costly if wrong, 5%
- Plan from schedules and orders, costly if wrong, 5%
What to learn
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts. About 60% of the time is documents and data, the part models reach first: writing a clear brief, giving the right material, and checking what comes back.
- The conversations. About 28% of the time is conversation and in-person work, which this site leaves with people: listening, explaining, persuading, calming.
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 21 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Develop or implement production tracking or quality control systems, analyzing production, quality control, maintenance, or other operational reports to detect production problems.Analysis of the reports and the systems set up.Done daily by most who do it. | 17% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 3.1 work days | Documents 70%, systems 30% | 48%Half by now |
| Direct or coordinate production, processing, distribution, or marketing activities of industrial organizations.Mostly on the floor with the supervisors, plus reading and deciding.Done daily by most who do it. | 15% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | In person 60%, documents 40% | 38%Desk part half by now |
| Initiate or coordinate inventory or cost control programs.The program designed on paper and coordinated with the departments.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 13% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | Documents 70%, conversation 30% | 39%Desk part half by now |
| Optimize operational costs and productivity consistent with safety and environmental rules and regulations.Analysis at the desk. | 6% | 5 h1.7 h to 2.1 work days | Documents 100% | 73%Half by now |
| Develop budgets or approve expenditures for supplies, materials, or human resources, ensuring that materials, labor, or equipment are used efficiently to meet production targets.Budgets at the desk and approvals in the system.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.7 work days | Documents 80%, systems 20% | 71%Half by now |
| Review processing schedules or production orders to make decisions concerning inventory requirements, staffing requirements, work procedures, or duty assignments, considering budgetary limitations and time constraints.Reading the schedules and deciding at the desk.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 1.3 h38 min to 2.5 h | Documents 100% | 100%Half by now |
| Set and monitor product standards, examining samples of raw products or directing testing during processing, to ensure finished products are of prescribed quality.Standards written, samples looked at, testing directed on the floor.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | Documents 40%, in person 30%, hands-on 30% | 40%Desk part half by now |
| Review operations and confer with technical or administrative staff to resolve production or processing problems.On the floor and in meetings with the staff.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | In person 60%, conversation 40% | Stays with people |
| Conduct site audits to ensure adherence to safety and environmental regulations.Walking the site and writing up the findings.Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 h | Hands-on 60%, documents 40% | 40%Desk part half by now |
| Develop or enforce procedures for normal operation of manufacturing systems.Procedures written and enforced on the floor. | 4% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days | Documents 60%, in person 40% | 48%Desk part half by now |
| Implement operational and emergency procedures.Procedures written and seen through on the floor. | 3% | 2.5 h50 min to 1 work day | Documents 60%, in person 40% | 55%Desk part half by now |
| Hire, train, evaluate, or discharge staff or resolve personnel grievances.Interviews and hard conversations, with the paperwork.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 3% | 1.7 h50 min to 5 h | Conversation 60%, documents 40% | 40%Desk part half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- General and Operations Managers45% now, 53% by 2028
- Quality Control Systems Managers72% now, 82% by 2028
- Biomass Power Plant Managers59% now, 68% by 2028
- Biofuels Production Managers37% now, 57% by 2028
- Supply Chain Managers40% now, 95% by 2028
- Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers32% now, 68% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Industrial Production Managers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 51% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 68% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (66% to 69% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Industrial Production Managers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Build tracking and quality systems (48% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Direct production (38% of the task's time now); and Run inventory and cost control programs (39% of the task's time now, 70% by the end of 2028).
- Which tasks of Industrial Production Managers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Resolve production problems with staff. Together such tasks are about 4% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Industrial Production Managers learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are reviewing work you did not do yourself; briefing a model and checking its drafts; and the conversations. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 32% of the working time stays with people, 67% becomes checking a model's work and 1% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Industrial Production Managers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.011% went to this job's tasks, the 380th largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 1 of its 21 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 1%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Industrial Production Managers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 2% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 0% of the working time. Its index is 0.00 of 3. A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 21 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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