Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 32% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 68% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 31% of the time, stays with people.
Plan, direct, or coordinate transportation, storage, or distribution activities in accordance with organizational policies and applicable government laws or regulations. Includes logistics managers.
221,180 people do this job in the US. $107,230 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on0 h
- A person checks AI's work13 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet15 h
- Stays with people12 h
Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 0 hours, 13 hours become checking its work, 15 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 12 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Recommend fee and schedule changes (about 2 h, a person checks); Set and watch performance measures (under an hour, a person checks); Analyze transport options (under an hour, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 63%
- 6%
- 16%
- 13%
- 2%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 32% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 7%. Today's estimate: 32%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.14% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 136th largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 2 of its 30 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.081% to 0.044% (released February and March 2025); 0.023% to 0.02% (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.15% to 0.14% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.081% | 199 of 708 | 9 of 30 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.044% | 289 of 703 | 6 of 30 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.023% | 350 of 655 | 4 of 30 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.017% | 409 of 672 | 5 of 30 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.02% | 401 of 677 | 4 of 30 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.15% | 131 of 434 | 2 of 30 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.14% | 136 of 447 | 2 of 30 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 3% of this job's working time as physical work. For 3% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 3% in a structured facility. 0.07 of 3, the 559th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 97%
- In a structured facility 3%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
31% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Supervise warehouse workers, the in-person work, 7%
- Improve systems and processes, the conversation, 3%
- Manage the staff's work, the conversation, 3%
- Plan facility changes, the conversation, 2%
- Integrate logistics with business systems, the conversation, 2%
- Inspect facilities and fleets, the hands-on work, 2%
What becomes checking the machine
67% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it.
- Plan facility changes, costly if wrong, 8%
- Improve systems and processes, costly if wrong, 7%
- Set and watch performance measures, costly if wrong, 7%
- Cut energy use in transport, costly if wrong, 7%
- Recommend fee and schedule changes, costly if wrong, 5%
- Analyze transport options, costly if wrong, 5%
What to learn
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts. About 63% of the time is documents and data, the part models reach first: writing a clear brief, giving the right material, and checking what comes back.
- The conversations. About 29% of the time is conversation and in-person work, which this site leaves with people: listening, explaining, persuading, calming.
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- Dealing with people outside the organization. Customers, patients, suppliers or the public: trust with them is built by a person.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 30 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plan or implement improvements to internal or external systems or processes.Design on paper and coordination with the teams. | 12% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 2.5 work weeks | Documents 70%, conversation 30% | 4%Desk part half by Feb 2028 |
| Develop or implement plans for facility modification or expansion, such as equipment purchase or changes in space allocation or structural design.Plans at the desk, with contractors and vendors.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 10% | 4.2 work days2.1 work days to 3.5 work weeks | Documents 80%, conversation 20% | 6%Desk part half by Oct 2027 |
| Plan or implement energy saving changes to transportation services, such as reducing routes, optimizing capacities, employing alternate modes of transportation, or minimizing idling.Analysis and the changes agreed with the operation.Done daily by most who do it. | 8% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 1 work week | Documents 80%, conversation 20% | 22%Desk part half by Apr 2027 |
| Establish or monitor specific supply chain-based performance measurement systems.Measures designed and read in the systems.Done daily by most who do it. | 7% | 1.3 work days2.5 h to 1 work week | Documents 60%, systems 40% | 32%Half by Mar 2027 |
| Supervise the activities of workers engaged in receiving, storing, testing, and shipping products or materials.On the floor with the crews.Done daily by most who do it. | 7% | 1.7 h25 min to 5 h | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Prepare management recommendations, such as proposed fee and tariff increases or schedule changes.Writing at the desk.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 5% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days | Documents 100% | 80%Half by now |
| Analyze all aspects of corporate logistics to determine the most cost-effective or efficient means of transporting products or supplies.Analysis at the desk.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 5% | 1 work day2.5 h to 4.2 work days | Documents 100% | 43%Half by Dec 2026 |
| Plan, organize, or manage the work of subordinate staff to ensure that the work is accomplished in a manner consistent with organizational requirements.Direction in conversation and on the floor, with the plans.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | Conversation 40%, in person 40%, documents 20% | 20%Desk part half by now |
| Analyze expenditures and other financial information to develop plans, policies, or budgets for increasing profits or improving services.Analysis at the desk.Done more than monthly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 4% | 1 work day2.5 h to 3.1 work days | Documents 100% | 52%Half by now |
| Plan, develop, or implement warehouse safety and security programs and activities.Programs written and seen through on the floor.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | Documents 60%, in person 40% | 33%Desk part half by now |
| Monitor operations to ensure that staff members comply with administrative policies and procedures, safety rules, union contracts, environmental policies, or government regulations.Walking the operation and reading the records.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 3% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | Documents 50%, in person 50% | 50%Desk part half by now |
| Collaborate with other departments to integrate logistics with business systems or processes, such as customer sales, order management, accounting, or shipping.Working sessions and the design on paper.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 3% | 2.5 h50 min to 1.3 work days | Conversation 60%, documents 40% | 35%Desk part half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 32% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 68% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (58% to 69% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Recommend fee and schedule changes (80% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Set and watch performance measures (32% of the task's time now, 99% by the end of 2028); and Analyze transport options (43% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028).
- Which tasks of Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Supervise warehouse workers; and Coordinate with department heads. Together such tasks are about 9% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are reviewing work you did not do yourself; briefing a model and checking its drafts; and the conversations. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 31% of the working time stays with people, 67% becomes checking a model's work and 0% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.14% went to this job's tasks, the 136th largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 2 of its 30 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 10%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 3% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 3% of the working time, 3% in a structured facility. Its index is 0.07 of 3. One example: Dexory autonomous robot with DexoryView Storage Health for "inspect facilities and fleets". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 30 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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