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Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers

Plan, direct, or coordinate transportation, storage, or distribution activities in accordance with organizational policies and applicable government laws or regulations. Includes logistics managers.

221,180 people do this job in the US. $107,230 a year.

now
14%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 81%
  • 10%
  • 10%
10%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
December 2027

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 81% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 10%. Today's estimate: 14%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 0% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 1% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 2% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 2% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 2% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 3% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 10% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 14% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 30 tasks from .

TaskKind
Plan or implement improvements to internal or external systems or processes.12%4.2 work days6.7 h to 2.5 work weeks0%Half by Jan 2029
Develop or implement plans for facility modification or expansion, such as equipment purchase or changes in space allocation or structural design.Done yearly or less by most who do it. 10%4.2 work days2.1 work days to 3.5 work weeks0%Half by Sep 2028
Plan or implement energy saving changes to transportation services, such as reducing routes, optimizing capacities, employing alternate modes of transportation, or minimizing idling.Done daily by most who do it. 8%1.7 work days3.3 h to 1 work week2%Half by Apr 2028
Establish or monitor specific supply chain-based performance measurement systems.Done daily by most who do it. 7%1.3 work days2.5 h to 1 work week3%Half by Mar 2028
Supervise the activities of workers engaged in receiving, storing, testing, and shipping products or materials.Done daily by most who do it. 7%1.7 h25 min to 5 hStays with people
Prepare management recommendations, such as proposed fee and tariff increases or schedule changes.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 5%3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days25%Half by Mar 2027
Analyze all aspects of corporate logistics to determine the most cost-effective or efficient means of transporting products or supplies.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task.5%1 work day2.5 h to 4.2 work days5%Half by Dec 2027
Plan, organize, or manage the work of subordinate staff to ensure that the work is accomplished in a manner consistent with organizational requirements.Done daily by most who do it. 4%1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h77%Half by now
Analyze expenditures and other financial information to develop plans, policies, or budgets for increasing profits or improving services.Done more than monthly by most who do it. AI observed on this task.4%1 work day2.5 h to 3.1 work days5%Half by Oct 2027
Plan, develop, or implement warehouse safety and security programs and activities.Done daily by most who do it. 3%6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days8%Half by Sep 2027
Monitor operations to ensure that staff members comply with administrative policies and procedures, safety rules, union contracts, environmental policies, or government regulations.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task.3%1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h77%Half by now
Collaborate with other departments to integrate logistics with business systems or processes, such as customer sales, order management, accounting, or shipping.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 3%2.5 h50 min to 1.3 work daysStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.