Industry group, 3364
Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing
563,460 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $105,300 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 192 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 50%
- 10%
- 40%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 14% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 13%. Today's estimate: 17%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 74% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers | 26,120 | 24% | 13 million | $74K |
| Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks | 7,340 | 63% | 9.7 million | $72K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 8,580 | 53% | 9.4 million | $59K |
| Industrial Engineers | 25,680 | 16% | 8.5 million | $107K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | 11,090 | 32% | 7.4 million | $96K |
| Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators | 13,470 | 25% | 7 million | $62K |
| Software Developers | 22,750 | 14% | 6.4 million | $135K |
| Team Assemblers | 23,880 | 10% | 5.2 million | $53K |
| Project Management Specialists | 7,110 | 33% | 4.9 million | $135K |
| Industrial Production Managers | 9,520 | 24% | 4.8 million | $141K |
| Machinists | 19,950 | 11% | 4.7 million | $64K |
| General and Operations Managers | 9,150 | 23% | 4.3 million | $170K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 204 smaller jobs (145,360 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Plan and establish sequence of operations to fabricate and assemble parts or products and to promote efficient utilization.Industrial Engineers8.6 million hours99% of the task within reach
- Recommend methods for improving utilization of personnel, material, and utilities.Industrial Engineers6.5 million hours99% of the task within reach
- Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance.Software Developers6.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Write technical reports or other documentation, such as handbooks or bulletins, for use by engineering staff, management, or customers.Aerospace Engineers6.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Formulate conceptual design of aeronautical or aerospace products or systems to meet customer requirements or conform to environmental regulations.Aerospace Engineers6 million hours98% of the task within reach
- Develop manufacturing methods, labor utilization standards, and cost analysis systems to promote efficient staff and facility utilization.Industrial Engineers5.7 million hours91% of the task within reach
- Manage the coordination and overall integration of technical activities in architecture or engineering projects.Architectural and Engineering Managers5.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Draft and design layout of equipment, materials, and workspace to illustrate maximum efficiency using drafting tools and computer.Industrial Engineers4.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Write test or inspection reports describing results, recommendations, or needed repairs.Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers4.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop or implement policies, standards, or procedures for engineering and technical work.Architectural and Engineering Managers4.6 million hours85% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing538,980 people16% now, 29% by 2028
- Motor Vehicle Manufacturing284,300 people14% now, 24% by 2028
- Motor Vehicle Body and Trailer Manufacturing158,670 people17% now, 25% by 2028
- Ship and Boat Building149,030 people16% now, 30% by 2028
- Other Transportation Equipment Manufacturing37,900 people19% now, 33% by 2028
- Railroad Rolling Stock Manufacturing21,420 people16% now, 34% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works