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STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
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Machinists

Set up and operate a variety of machine tools to produce precision parts and instruments out of metal. Includes precision instrument makers who fabricate, modify, or repair mechanical instruments. May also fabricate and modify parts to make or repair machine tools or maintain industrial machines, applying knowledge of mechanics, mathematics, metal properties, layout, and machining procedures.

287,050 people do this job in the US. $58,750 a year.

now
11%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 29%
  • 3%
  • 68%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
December 2026

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 29% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 7%. Today's estimate: 11%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 0% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 0% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 1% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 1% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 1% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 2% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 7% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 11% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 29 tasks from .

TaskKind
Machine parts to specifications, using machine tools, such as lathes, milling machines, shapers, or grinders.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 12%2.5 h25 min to 1 work dayStays with people
Support metalworking projects from planning and fabrication through assembly, inspection, and testing, using knowledge of machine functions, metal properties, and mathematics.Done daily by most who do it.12%1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work daysStays with people
Design fixtures, tooling, or experimental parts to meet special engineering needs.Done daily by most who do it. 10%5 h1.7 h to 1.3 work days19%Half by Mar 2027
Program computers or electronic instruments, such as numerically controlled machine tools.Done daily by most who do it. 7%2.5 h25 min to 1 work day25%Half by May 2027
Fit and assemble parts to make or repair machine tools.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 5%2.5 h38 min to 6.7 hStays with people
Test experimental models under simulated operating conditions, for purposes such as development, standardization, or feasibility of design.Done more than yearly by most who do it.5%4.2 h1.7 h to 1 work dayStays with people
Establish work procedures for fabricating new structural products, using a variety of metalworking machines.Done daily by most who do it.4%3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 h49%Half by now
Diagnose machine tool malfunctions to determine need for adjustments or repairs.Done daily by most who do it. 4%1.3 h17 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Study sample parts, blueprints, drawings, or engineering information to determine methods or sequences of operations needed to fabricate products.Done daily by most who do it. 4%1.3 h17 min to 2.5 h74%Half by now
Set up, adjust, or operate basic or specialized machine tools used to perform precision machining operations.Done daily by most who do it. 4%50 min25 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Set up or operate metalworking, brazing, heat-treating, welding, or cutting equipment.Done hourly or more by most who do it.4%1.7 h25 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Maintain machine tools in proper operational condition.Done daily by most who do it. 4%50 min13 min to 3.3 hStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.