Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
In short: today's best AI models could do about 38% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 62% of the time, stays with people.
Set up, operate, or tend lathe and turning machines to turn, bore, thread, form, or face metal or plastic materials, such as wire, rod, or bar stock.
16,710 people do this job in the US. $50,620 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on15 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people25 h
Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 15 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 25 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Program computer numerical control machines (about 9 h); Study blueprints, layouts or charts, and job orders for information on specifications and tooling instructions, and to determine material requirements and operational sequences (about 3 h); Compute unspecified dimensions and machine settings, using knowledge of metal properties and shop mathematics (about 2 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 38%
- 0%
- 62%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 26%. Today's estimate: 38%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
None of this job's 18 tasks showed up in the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled in any of its 7 releases, from February 2025 to May 2026.
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 85% of this job's working time as physical work. For 80% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 52% in a purpose-built cell, 28% in a structured facility. 1.09 of 3, the 82nd highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 15%
- No robot shown 5%
- In a purpose-built cell 52%
- In a structured facility 28%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 18 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Program computer numerical control machines.Done daily by most who do it. | 23% | 1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h | 99%Half by now | |
| Crank machines through cycles, stopping to adjust tool positions and machine controls to ensure specified timing, clearances, and tolerances.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 25 min8 min to 1.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Mount attachments, such as relieving or tracing attachments, to perform operations, such as duplicating contours of templates or trimming workpieces.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Install holding fixtures, cams, gears, and stops to control stock and tool movement, using hand tools, power tools, and measuring instruments.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Kitagawa Automated Jaw Pallet System (AJPS) with Promano grippers (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 33 min13 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Study blueprints, layouts or charts, and job orders for information on specifications and tooling instructions, and to determine material requirements and operational sequences.Done daily by most who do it. | 7% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Lift metal stock or workpieces manually or using hoists, and position and secure them in machines, using fasteners and hand tools.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Universal Robots UR10e cobot cells at RCM Industries (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | Stays with people | |
| Replace worn tools, and sharpen dull cutting tools and dies, using bench grinders or cutter-grinding machines.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, ZOLLER »micBox« indexable insert changer (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | Stays with people | |
| Adjust machine controls and change tool settings to keep dimensions within specified tolerances.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Renishaw Equator + EZ-IO/auto-compensation on Okuma 2SP-250 turning cell (Conroe Machine) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 13 min4 min to 33 min | Stays with people | |
| Compute unspecified dimensions and machine settings, using knowledge of metal properties and shop mathematics.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 21 min8 min to 42 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Inspect sample workpieces to verify conformance with specifications, using instruments such as gauges, micrometers, and dial indicators.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, FANUC robot + Renishaw Equator gauging system + Okuma 2SP-250 lathe (Conroe Machine cell) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 13 min4 min to 29 min | Stays with people | |
| Start lathe or turning machines and observe operations to ensure that specifications are met.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Universal Robots UR10e cobot machine-tending cells (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 13 min4 min to 38 min | Stays with people | |
| Position, secure, and align cutting tools in toolholders on machines, using hand tools, and verify their positions with measuring instruments.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Fastems Turret Tool Changer (with Sauter SolidPro) (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Milling and Planing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic18% now, 18% by 2028
- Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic10% now, 10% by 2028
- Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic10% now, 10% by 2028
- Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing9% now, 9% by 2028
- Tool Grinders, Filers, and Sharpeners6% now, 6% by 2028
- Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic6% now, 6% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
- Machine Shops; Turned Product; and Screw, Nut, and Bolt Manufacturing6,200 people
- Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing (3321, 3322, 3325, 3326, and 3329 only)3,160 people
- Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing980 people
- Machinery Manufacturing (3331, 3332, 3334, and 3339 only)950 people
- Metalworking Machinery Manufacturing940 people
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 38% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 38% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Program computer numerical control machines (99% of the task's time now); Study blueprints, layouts or charts, and job orders for information on specifications and tooling instructions, and to determine material requirements and operational sequences (100% of the task's time now); and Compute unspecified dimensions and machine settings, using knowledge of metal properties and shop mathematics (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Crank machines through cycles, stopping to adjust tool positions and machine controls to ensure specified timing, clearances, and tolerances; Mount attachments, such as relieving or tracing attachments, to perform operations, such as duplicating contours of templates or trimming workpieces; and Install holding fixtures, cams, gears, and stops to control stock and tool movement, using hand tools, power tools, and measuring instruments. Together such tasks are about 62% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 85% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 80% of the working time, 28% in a structured facility. Its index is 1.09 of 3. One example: Universal Robots UR10e cobot machine-tending cells for "start lathe or turning machines and observe operations to ensure that specifications are met". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 18 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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