Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Programmers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 84% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 16% of the time, stays with people.
Develop programs to control machining or processing of materials by automatic machine tools, equipment, or systems. May also set up, operate, or maintain equipment.
28,500 people do this job in the US. $68,120 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on34 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people6 h
Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Programmers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 34 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 6 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Analyze job orders, drawings, blueprints, specifications, printed circuit board pattern films, and design data to calculate dimensions, tool selection, machine speeds, and feed rates (about 6 h); Write programs in the language of a machine's controller and store programs on media, such as punch tapes, magnetic tapes, or disks (about 6 h); Determine the sequence of machine operations, and select the proper cutting tools needed to machine workpieces into the desired shapes (about 4 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 84%
- 0%
- 16%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 57%. Today's estimate: 84%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.011% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 362nd largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 1 of its 16 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 1.1% to 0.86% (released February and March 2025); 0.96% to 0.25% (August 2025 to February 2026); none to 0.011% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 1.1% | 17 of 708 | 4 of 16 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.86% | 21 of 703 | 3 of 16 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.96% | 18 of 655 | 4 of 16 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.37% | 46 of 672 | 3 of 16 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.25% | 78 of 677 | 3 of 16 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 16 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.011% | 362 of 447 | 1 of 16 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 2% of this job's working time as physical work. For 2% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 2% in a purpose-built cell. 0.02 of 3, the 636th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 98%
- In a purpose-built cell 2%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 16 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Write programs in the language of a machine's controller and store programs on media, such as punch tapes, magnetic tapes, or disks.Done daily by most who do it. | 15% | 1.7 h38 min to 5 h | 99%Half by now | |
| Analyze job orders, drawings, blueprints, specifications, printed circuit board pattern films, and design data to calculate dimensions, tool selection, machine speeds, and feed rates.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 15% | 1.3 h38 min to 4.2 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Determine the sequence of machine operations, and select the proper cutting tools needed to machine workpieces into the desired shapes.Done daily by most who do it. | 10% | 50 min25 min to 3.3 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Observe machines on trial runs or conduct computer simulations to ensure that programs and machinery will function properly and produce items that meet specifications.Done daily by most who do it. | 9% | 1.3 h25 min to 4.2 h | Stays with people | |
| Modify existing programs to enhance efficiency.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 8% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | 99%Half by now | |
| Determine reference points, machine cutting paths, or hole locations, and compute angular and linear dimensions, radii, and curvatures.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 7% | 50 min25 min to 2.5 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Prepare geometric layouts from graphic displays, using computer-assisted drafting software or drafting instruments and graph paper.Done daily by most who do it. | 7% | 1.3 h25 min to 5 h | 97%Half by now | |
| Revise programs or tapes to eliminate errors, and retest programs to check that problems have been solved.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 7% | 50 min25 min to 3.3 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Write instruction sheets and cutter lists for a machine's controller to guide setup and encode numerical control tapes.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h | 99%Half by now | |
| Enter coordinates of hole locations into program memories by depressing pedals or buttons of programmers.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 38 min13 min to 1.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Enter computer commands to store or retrieve parts patterns, graphic displays, or programs that transfer data to other media.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 17 min4 min to 50 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Compare encoded tapes or computer printouts with original part specifications and blueprints to verify accuracy of instructions.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | 100%Half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
- Machine Shops; Turned Product; and Screw, Nut, and Bolt Manufacturing5,420 people
- Machinery Manufacturing (3331, 3332, 3334, and 3339 only)2,670 people
- Metalworking Machinery Manufacturing2,420 people
- Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing (3321, 3322, 3325, 3326, and 3329 only)2,330 people
- Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing2,060 people
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Programmers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 84% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 84% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Programmers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Analyze job orders, drawings, blueprints, specifications, printed circuit board pattern films, and design data to calculate dimensions, tool selection, machine speeds, and feed rates (100% of the task's time now); Write programs in the language of a machine's controller and store programs on media, such as punch tapes, magnetic tapes, or disks (99% of the task's time now); and Determine the sequence of machine operations, and select the proper cutting tools needed to machine workpieces into the desired shapes (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Programmers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Observe machines on trial runs or conduct computer simulations to ensure that programs and machinery will function properly and produce items that meet specifications; Enter coordinates of hole locations into program memories by depressing pedals or buttons of programmers; and Perform preventative maintenance or minor repairs on machines. Together such tasks are about 16% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Programmers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.011% went to this job's tasks, the 362nd largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 1 of its 16 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 12%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Programmers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 2% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 2% of the working time. Its index is 0.02 of 3. One example: Okuma ARMROID (built-in robot for LB3000 EX III / MULTUS B250II-B300II) for "perform preventative maintenance or minor repairs on machines". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 16 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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