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Aerospace Engineers

Perform engineering duties in designing, constructing, and testing aircraft, missiles, and spacecraft. May conduct basic and applied research to evaluate adaptability of materials and equipment to aircraft design and manufacture. May recommend improvements in testing equipment and techniques.

67,710 people do this job in the US. $134,960 a year.

now
5%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 60%
  • 18%
  • 23%
8%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
November 2027

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 60% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 3%. Today's estimate: 5%.

0%5%10%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 0% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 0% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 0% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 0% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 0% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 0% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 3% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 5% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 14 tasks from .

TaskKind
Diagnose performance problems by reviewing reports or documentation from customers or field engineers or by inspecting malfunctioning or damaged products.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 11%6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work daysStays with people
Write technical reports or other documentation, such as handbooks or bulletins, for use by engineering staff, management, or customers.Done more than monthly by most who do it. AI observed on this task.11%6.7 h3.3 h to 2.5 work days10%Half by May 2027
Formulate conceptual design of aeronautical or aerospace products or systems to meet customer requirements or conform to environmental regulations.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 11%2.1 work days6.7 h to 4.2 work days0%Half by Jan 2028
Plan or conduct experimental, environmental, operational, or stress tests on models or prototypes of aircraft or aerospace systems or equipment.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 11%2.1 work days6.7 h to 4.2 work daysStays with people
Formulate mathematical models or other methods of computer analysis to develop, evaluate, or modify design, according to customer engineering requirements.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 11%2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.3 work weeks1%Half by Jul 2028
Direct aerospace research and development programs.Done hourly or more by most who do it.11%2.1 work days6.7 h to 4.2 work daysStays with people
Analyze project requests, proposals, or engineering data to determine feasibility, productibility, cost, or production time of aerospace or aeronautical products.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 10%1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days2%Half by Feb 2028
Direct or coordinate activities of engineering or technical personnel involved in designing, fabricating, modifying, or testing of aircraft or aerospace products.Done daily by most who do it. 6%3.3 h50 min to 2.1 work daysStays with people
Evaluate product data or design from inspections or reports for conformance to engineering principles, customer requirements, environmental regulations, or quality standards.Done daily by most who do it. 6%3.3 h1.7 h to 1.3 work days38%Half by Nov 2026
Plan or coordinate investigation and resolution of customers' reports of technical problems with aircraft or aerospace vehicles.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 4%6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days8%Half by Sep 2027
Develop design criteria for aeronautical or aerospace products or systems, including testing methods, production costs, quality standards, environmental standards, or completion dates.Done more than monthly by most who do it.4%1.7 work days4.2 h to 4.2 work days1%Half by Jan 2028
Maintain records of performance reports for future reference.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 1.0%50 min13 min to 2.5 h79%Half by now

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.