Mechanical Engineers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 23% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 70% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 26% of the time, stays with people.
Perform engineering duties in planning and designing tools, engines, machines, and other mechanically functioning equipment. Oversee installation, operation, maintenance, and repair of equipment such as centralized heat, gas, water, and steam systems.
296,810 people do this job in the US. $104,110 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on0 h
- A person checks AI's work9 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet21 h
- Stays with people10 h
Mechanical Engineers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 0 hours, 9 hours become checking its work, 21 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 10 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Help drafters with design (about 1 h, a person checks); Evaluate customer design proposals (about 1 h, a person checks); Specify components and changes (under an hour, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 74%
- 0%
- 7%
- 7%
- 11%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 23% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 3%. Today's estimate: 23%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.27% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 86th largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 5 of its 28 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.028% to 0.034% (released February and March 2025); 0.059% to 0.036% (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.28% to 0.27% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.028% | 382 of 708 | 6 of 28 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.034% | 336 of 703 | 4 of 28 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.059% | 223 of 655 | 4 of 28 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.027% | 344 of 672 | 4 of 28 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.036% | 298 of 677 | 6 of 28 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.28% | 81 of 434 | 6 of 28 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.27% | 86 of 447 | 5 of 28 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates almost none of this job's working time as physical work, so robots do not reach it.
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
24% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Coordinate production of designs, the conversation, 3%
- Supervise technical staff, the conversation, 3%
- Direct renewable energy installations, the in-person work, 2%
- Design and support mechanical systems, the hands-on work, 2%
- Investigate equipment failures, the hands-on work, 2%
- Study processes for efficiency, the hands-on work, 2%
What becomes checking the machine
69% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it.
- Apply engineering to new fields, costly if wrong, 7%
- Design efficient mechanical systems, severe if wrong, 7%
- Evaluate customer design proposals, costly if wrong, 6%
- Model and test alternate designs, costly if wrong, 5%
- Design and support mechanical systems, severe if wrong, 5%
- Study processes for efficiency, costly if wrong, 4%
What to learn
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts. About 74% of the time is documents and data, the part models reach first: writing a clear brief, giving the right material, and checking what comes back.
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 28 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research, design, evaluate, install, operate, or maintain mechanical products, equipment, systems or processes to meet requirements.Design work at the desk, with time on the equipment.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 7% | 2.5 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks | Documents 70%, hands-on 30% | 8%Desk part half by Nov 2027 |
| Develop, coordinate, or monitor all aspects of production, including selection of manufacturing methods, fabrication, or operation of product designs.Planning on paper, with the shop and the team.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 7% | 2.5 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks | Documents 60%, conversation 20%, in person 20% | 7%Desk part half by Nov 2027 |
| Apply engineering principles or practices to emerging fields, such as robotics, waste management, or biomedical engineering.Design and analysis at the desk.Done daily by most who do it. | 7% | 2.5 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks | Documents 100% | 12%Half by Nov 2027 |
| Develop or test models of alternate designs or processing methods to assess feasibility, sustainability, operating condition effects, potential new applications, or necessity of modification.Modeling at the desk and tests on the bench.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 7% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 3.3 work weeks | Documents 80%, hands-on 20% | 4%Desk part half by Apr 2028 |
| Design integrated mechanical or alternative systems, such as mechanical cooling systems with natural ventilation systems, to improve energy efficiency.Design at the desk.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 7% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 2.5 work weeks | Documents 100% | 6%Half by Feb 2028 |
| Study industrial processes to maximize the efficiency of equipment applications, including equipment placement.Analysis at the desk and time on the floor.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 6% | 2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks | Documents 70%, hands-on 30% | 10%Desk part half by Oct 2027 |
| Research and analyze customer design proposals, specifications, manuals, or other data to evaluate the feasibility, cost, or maintenance requirements of designs or applications.Analysis at the desk.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 6% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 3.3 work days | Documents 100% | 46%Half by Dec 2026 |
| Specify system components or direct modification of products to ensure conformance with engineering design, performance specifications, or environmental regulations.Specifications written and worked through with the team.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 3.3 h50 min to 2.1 work days | Documents 80%, conversation 20% | 51%Desk part half by now |
| Direct the installation, operation, maintenance, or repair of renewable energy equipment, such as heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) or water systems.On site directing the work, with the plans.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks | In person 60%, documents 40% | 6%Desk part half by Oct 2027 |
| Investigate equipment failures or difficulties to diagnose faulty operation and recommend remedial actions.Examining the failure and writing up the cause and the fix.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 4% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | Documents 50%, hands-on 50% | 28%Desk part half by now |
| Conduct research that tests or analyzes the feasibility, design, operation, or performance of equipment, components, or systems.Analysis and testing.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 4% | 2.1 work days6.7 h to 1.7 work weeks | Documents 70%, hands-on 30% | 16%Desk part half by May 2027 |
| Design test control apparatus or equipment or develop procedures for testing products.Design at the desk.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 4% | 2.1 work days6.7 h to 1.4 work weeks | Documents 100% | 26%Half by Apr 2027 |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Mechanical Engineering Technologists and Technicians35% now, 53% by 2028
- Electrical Engineers17% now, 67% by 2028
- Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technologists and Technicians39% now, 48% by 2028
- Mechatronics Engineers19% now, 74% by 2028
- Industrial Engineers60% now, 86% by 2028
- Electronics Engineers, Except Computer26% now, 73% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Mechanical Engineers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 23% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 70% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (53% to 74% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Mechanical Engineers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Help drafters with design (86% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Evaluate customer design proposals (46% of the task's time now, 99% by the end of 2028); and Specify components and changes (51% of the task's time now, 80% by the end of 2028).
- Which tasks of Mechanical Engineers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Confer with engineers and staff; and Solicit new business. Together such tasks are about 2% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Mechanical Engineers learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are reviewing work you did not do yourself; briefing a model and checking its drafts; and judgment where errors are severe. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 24% of the working time stays with people, 69% becomes checking a model's work and 0% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Mechanical Engineers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.27% went to this job's tasks, the 86th largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 5 of its 28 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 8%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Mechanical Engineers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds almost none of the working time is physical work, so robots do not reach it.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 28 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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