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Mechanical Engineers

Perform engineering duties in planning and designing tools, engines, machines, and other mechanically functioning equipment. Oversee installation, operation, maintenance, and repair of equipment such as centralized heat, gas, water, and steam systems.

296,810 people do this job in the US. $104,110 a year.

now
7%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 76%
  • 2%
  • 22%
8%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
April 2028

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 76% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 5%. Today's estimate: 7%.

0%5%10%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 0% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 0% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 1% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 1% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 1% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 1% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 5% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 7% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 28 tasks from .

TaskKind
Research, design, evaluate, install, operate, or maintain mechanical products, equipment, systems or processes to meet requirements.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 7%2.5 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeksStays with people
Develop, coordinate, or monitor all aspects of production, including selection of manufacturing methods, fabrication, or operation of product designs.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 7%2.5 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks1%Half by Nov 2028
Apply engineering principles or practices to emerging fields, such as robotics, waste management, or biomedical engineering.Done daily by most who do it.7%2.5 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks1%Half by Nov 2028
Develop or test models of alternate designs or processing methods to assess feasibility, sustainability, operating condition effects, potential new applications, or necessity of modification.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 7%4.2 work days6.7 h to 3.3 work weeks0%Half by Apr 2029
Design integrated mechanical or alternative systems, such as mechanical cooling systems with natural ventilation systems, to improve energy efficiency.Done hourly or more by most who do it.7%4.2 work days6.7 h to 2.5 work weeks0%Half by Jan 2029
Study industrial processes to maximize the efficiency of equipment applications, including equipment placement.Done more than weekly by most who do it.6%2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks1%Half by Sep 2028
Research and analyze customer design proposals, specifications, manuals, or other data to evaluate the feasibility, cost, or maintenance requirements of designs or applications.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 6%6.7 h1.7 h to 3.3 work days7%Half by Nov 2027
Specify system components or direct modification of products to ensure conformance with engineering design, performance specifications, or environmental regulations.Done daily by most who do it. 4%3.3 h50 min to 2.1 work days18%Half by Jul 2027
Direct the installation, operation, maintenance, or repair of renewable energy equipment, such as heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) or water systems.Done daily by most who do it.4%2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeksStays with people
Investigate equipment failures or difficulties to diagnose faulty operation and recommend remedial actions.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 4%6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work daysStays with people
Conduct research that tests or analyzes the feasibility, design, operation, or performance of equipment, components, or systems.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 4%2.1 work days6.7 h to 1.7 work weeks1%Half by Apr 2028
Design test control apparatus or equipment or develop procedures for testing products.Done more than yearly by most who do it.4%2.1 work days6.7 h to 1.4 work weeks1%Half by Mar 2028

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).