Industry group, 9991
Federal Executive Branch
2,156,590 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $111,080 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 1.7 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 60%
- 19%
- 21%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 33% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 1,635,009 people in jobs so far, 76% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 1.1 billion hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 325 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 293 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 48%
- 11%
- 11%
- 10%
- 19%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 1,635,009 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself1,143,946 (70%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts867,442 (53%)
- Judgment where errors are severe572,597 (35%)
- The hands-on craft287,017 (18%)
- Signing off under your license220,727 (14%)
- Running AI inside the business systems76,200 (5%)
- The conversations50,650 (3%)
- Handling protected records31,190 (2%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization1,090 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 41%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 23% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 12% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 9% in a purpose-built cell, 3% in a structured facility. 0.15 of 3.
- Not physical 77%
- No robot shown 12%
- In a purpose-built cell 9%
- In a structured facility 3%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 58% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Registered Nurses | 101,050 | 37% | 77 million | $121K |
| Compliance Officers | 66,840 | 54% | 75 million | $106K |
| Sustainability Specialists | 49,043 | 61% | 62 million | $103K |
| Detectives and Criminal Investigators | 41,230 | 69% | 60 million | $120K |
| Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators | 46,690 | 60% | 59 million | $94K |
| Management Analysts | 76,570 | 37% | 58 million | $116K |
| Online Merchants | 49,043 | 54% | 55 million | $103K |
| Human Resources Specialists | 37,880 | 63% | 49 million | $108K |
| Office Clerks, General | 39,490 | 56% | 46 million | $56K |
| Security Management Specialists | 49,043 | 45% | 46 million | $103K |
| Business Continuity Planners | 49,043 | 43% | 44 million | $103K |
| Tax Examiners and Collectors, and Revenue Agents | 25,930 | 77% | 42 million | $65K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 324 smaller jobs (845,775 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 94% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Develop and implement records management program for filing, protection, and retrieval of records, and assure compliance with program.Management Analysts38 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Verify that all firm and regulatory policies and procedures have been documented, implemented, and communicated.Compliance Officers29 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Analyze data gathered and develop solutions or alternative methods of proceeding.Management Analysts25 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare reports that detail investigation findings.Detectives and Criminal Investigators20 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Gather and organize information on problems or procedures.Management Analysts19 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Evaluate applications, records, or documents to gather information about eligibility or liability issues.Compliance Officers18 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses17 million hours60% of the task within reach
- Develop emergency management plans for recovery decision making and communications, continuity of critical departmental processes, or temporary shut-down of non-critical departments to ensure continuity of operation and governance.Business Continuity Planners16 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Prepare manuals and train workers in use of new forms, reports, procedures or equipment, according to organizational policy.Management Analysts12 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Design or implement products and services to mitigate risk or facilitate use of technology-based tools and methods.Business Continuity Planners12 million hours95% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Federal Executive Branch is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 41% of the paid hours in Federal Executive Branch are within reach of AI models now and 60% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (55% to 60% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Federal Executive Branch carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Registered Nurses (101,050 people, 37% of their time, about 77 million hours a year); Compliance Officers (66,840 people, 54% of their time, about 75 million hours a year); and Sustainability Specialists (49,043 people, 61% of their time, about 62 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Federal Executive Branch carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Develop and implement records management program for filing, protection, and retrieval of records, and assure compliance with program (Management Analysts, about 38 million hours a year); Verify that all firm and regulatory policies and procedures have been documented, implemented, and communicated (Compliance Officers, about 29 million hours a year); and Analyze data gathered and develop solutions or alternative methods of proceeding (Management Analysts, about 25 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Federal Executive Branch learn first?
- Among the 1,635,009 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are reviewing work you did not do yourself (1,143,946 people); briefing a model and checking its drafts (867,442 people); and judgment where errors are severe (572,597 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 40% of their working time stays with people, 53% becomes checking a model's work and 5% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Federal Executive Branch (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 94% of its people, and 76% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.