Industry group, 9991
Federal Executive Branch
2,156,590 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $111,080 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 925 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 62%
- 10%
- 28%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 17% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 22%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 58% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compliance Officers | 66,840 | 36% | 51 million | $106K |
| Office Clerks, General | 39,490 | 58% | 48 million | $56K |
| Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs | 31,190 | 72% | 46 million | $60K |
| Registered Nurses | 101,050 | 21% | 44 million | $121K |
| Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators | 46,690 | 37% | 36 million | $94K |
| Human Resources Specialists | 37,880 | 44% | 34 million | $108K |
| Tax Examiners and Collectors, and Revenue Agents | 25,930 | 62% | 34 million | $65K |
| Air Traffic Controllers | 20,530 | 71% | 30 million | $156K |
| Detectives and Criminal Investigators | 41,230 | 35% | 30 million | $120K |
| Online Merchants | 49,043 | 29% | 29 million | $103K |
| Transportation Security Screeners | 45,490 | 16% | 15 million | $67K |
| Sustainability Specialists | 49,043 | 14% | 14 million | $103K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 324 smaller jobs (845,775 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 94% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Verify that all firm and regulatory policies and procedures have been documented, implemented, and communicated.Compliance Officers39 million hours94% of the task within reach
- Develop and implement records management program for filing, protection, and retrieval of records, and assure compliance with program.Management Analysts29 million hours76% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses28 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze data gathered and develop solutions or alternative methods of proceeding.Management Analysts25 million hours98% of the task within reach
- Gather and organize information on problems or procedures.Management Analysts24 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop emergency management plans for recovery decision making and communications, continuity of critical departmental processes, or temporary shut-down of non-critical departments to ensure continuity of operation and governance.Business Continuity Planners20 million hours98% of the task within reach
- Prepare reports that detail investigation findings.Detectives and Criminal Investigators20 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Provide assistance to internal or external auditors in compliance reviews.Compliance Officers18 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Evaluate applications, records, or documents to gather information about eligibility or liability issues.Compliance Officers18 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare manuals and train workers in use of new forms, reports, procedures or equipment, according to organizational policy.Management Analysts17 million hours95% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works