Industry group, 9992
State Government, excluding Schools and Hospitals
2,250,900 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $75,780 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 1.7 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 52%
- 26%
- 23%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 30% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 1,983,118 people in jobs so far, 88% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 1.1 billion hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 494 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 387 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 38%
- 13%
- 11%
- 16%
- 21%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 1,983,118 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself1,097,303 (55%)
- Judgment where errors are severe823,935 (42%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts792,653 (40%)
- Signing off under your license321,168 (16%)
- The hands-on craft310,667 (16%)
- The conversations287,690 (15%)
- Running AI inside the business systems236,710 (12%)
- Handling protected records64,560 (3%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization12,700 (1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 38%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 29% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 14% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 9% in a purpose-built cell, 4% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.19 of 3.
- Not physical 71%
- No robot shown 15%
- In a purpose-built cell 9%
- In a structured facility 4%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 65% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Court, Municipal, and License Clerks | 46,850 | 75% | 73 million | $53K |
| Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs | 55,800 | 62% | 72 million | $51K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 57,120 | 59% | 70 million | $47K |
| Office Clerks, General | 59,250 | 56% | 70 million | $45K |
| Correctional Officers and Jailers | 191,530 | 17% | 67 million | $60K |
| Management Analysts | 66,540 | 37% | 51 million | $77K |
| Child, Family, and School Social Workers | 74,370 | 32% | 50 million | $62K |
| Compliance Officers | 44,300 | 54% | 50 million | $67K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 41,630 | 54% | 47 million | $72K |
| Accountants and Auditors | 44,370 | 45% | 42 million | $77K |
| Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants | 28,240 | 64% | 38 million | $69K |
| Lawyers | 52,910 | 32% | 35 million | $115K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 452 smaller jobs (757,730 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Develop and implement records management program for filing, protection, and retrieval of records, and assure compliance with program.Management Analysts33 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan or direct the maintenance, filing, safekeeping, or computerization of all municipal documents.Court, Municipal, and License Clerks23 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze data gathered and develop solutions or alternative methods of proceeding.Management Analysts22 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain case history records and prepare reports.Child, Family, and School Social Workers20 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Verify that all firm and regulatory policies and procedures have been documented, implemented, and communicated.Compliance Officers19 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Conduct social research.Child, Family, and School Social Workers18 million hours88% of the task within reach
- Compile, record, and evaluate personal and financial data to verify completeness and accuracy, and to determine eligibility status.Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs17 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Gather and organize information on problems or procedures.Management Analysts16 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Plan and design transportation or hydraulic systems or structures, using computer-assisted design or drawing tools.Civil Engineers16 million hours99% of the task within reach
- Initiate procedures to grant, modify, deny, or terminate assistance, or refer applicants to other agencies for assistance.Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs15 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in State Government, excluding Schools and Hospitals is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 38% of the paid hours in State Government, excluding Schools and Hospitals are within reach of AI models now and 51% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (48% to 52% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in State Government, excluding Schools and Hospitals carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Court, Municipal, and License Clerks (46,850 people, 75% of their time, about 73 million hours a year); Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs (55,800 people, 62% of their time, about 72 million hours a year); and Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive (57,120 people, 59% of their time, about 70 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in State Government, excluding Schools and Hospitals carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Develop and implement records management program for filing, protection, and retrieval of records, and assure compliance with program (Management Analysts, about 33 million hours a year); Plan or direct the maintenance, filing, safekeeping, or computerization of all municipal documents (Court, Municipal, and License Clerks, about 23 million hours a year); and Analyze data gathered and develop solutions or alternative methods of proceeding (Management Analysts, about 22 million hours a year).
- What would people working in State Government, excluding Schools and Hospitals learn first?
- Among the 1,983,118 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are reviewing work you did not do yourself (1,097,303 people); judgment where errors are severe (823,935 people); and briefing a model and checking its drafts (792,653 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 48% of their working time stays with people, 43% becomes checking a model's work and 8% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in State Government, excluding Schools and Hospitals (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 97% of its people, and 88% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.