Industry group, 9992
State Government, excluding Schools and Hospitals
2,250,900 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $75,780 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 1.1 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 53%
- 16%
- 31%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 20% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 21%. Today's estimate: 25%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 65% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs | 55,800 | 72% | 83 million | $51K |
| Office Clerks, General | 59,250 | 54% | 67 million | $45K |
| Child, Family, and School Social Workers | 74,370 | 35% | 54 million | $62K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 57,120 | 43% | 51 million | $47K |
| Court, Municipal, and License Clerks | 46,850 | 51% | 49 million | $53K |
| Correctional Officers and Jailers | 191,530 | 12% | 48 million | $60K |
| Probation Officers and Correctional Treatment Specialists | 44,840 | 42% | 39 million | $66K |
| Compliance Officers | 44,300 | 37% | 34 million | $67K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 41,630 | 35% | 30 million | $72K |
| Social and Human Service Assistants | 31,990 | 44% | 29 million | $51K |
| Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants | 28,240 | 47% | 28 million | $69K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 19,540 | 64% | 26 million | $45K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 452 smaller jobs (757,730 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Verify that all firm and regulatory policies and procedures have been documented, implemented, and communicated.Compliance Officers26 million hours94% of the task within reach
- Develop and implement records management program for filing, protection, and retrieval of records, and assure compliance with program.Management Analysts25 million hours76% of the task within reach
- Analyze data gathered and develop solutions or alternative methods of proceeding.Management Analysts22 million hours98% of the task within reach
- Maintain case history records and prepare reports.Child, Family, and School Social Workers20 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compile, record, and evaluate personal and financial data to verify completeness and accuracy, and to determine eligibility status.Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs17 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Gather and organize information on problems or procedures.Management Analysts16 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Initiate procedures to grant, modify, deny, or terminate assistance, or refer applicants to other agencies for assistance.Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs15 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop and review service plans in consultation with clients and perform follow-ups assessing the quantity and quality of services provided.Child, Family, and School Social Workers15 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General15 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Use nondisciplinary tools and equipment, such as a computer.Correctional Officers and Jailers15 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works