Subsector, 999
Federal, State, and Local Government, excluding State and Local Government Schools and Hospitals and the U.S. Postal Service
10,242,890 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $80,290 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 4.7 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 47%
- 14%
- 39%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 23%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 56% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Clerks, General | 238,880 | 54% | 270 million | $48K |
| Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs | 142,140 | 72% | 212 million | $55K |
| Court, Municipal, and License Clerks | 176,440 | 51% | 186 million | $49K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 182,040 | 43% | 161 million | $50K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 91,330 | 78% | 147 million | $53K |
| Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers | 642,460 | 10% | 134 million | $77K |
| Child, Family, and School Social Workers | 154,590 | 35% | 113 million | $65K |
| Compliance Officers | 142,880 | 37% | 109 million | $81K |
| Registered Nurses | 169,640 | 28% | 98 million | $111K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 71,030 | 64% | 95 million | $47K |
| Correctional Officers and Jailers | 362,970 | 12% | 91 million | $59K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives | 149,820 | 29% | 90 million | $107K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 594 smaller jobs (4,306,910 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Verify that all firm and regulatory policies and procedures have been documented, implemented, and communicated.Compliance Officers84 million hours94% of the task within reach
- Develop and implement records management program for filing, protection, and retrieval of records, and assure compliance with program.Management Analysts67 million hours76% of the task within reach
- Learn material and pass required tests for certification.Public Safety Telecommunicators62 million hours90% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General60 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze data gathered and develop solutions or alternative methods of proceeding.Management Analysts57 million hours98% of the task within reach
- Prepare reports that detail investigation findings.Detectives and Criminal Investigators54 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Attend training classes to maintain certification licensure, keep abreast of new developments in the field, or maintain existing knowledge.A job in this industry52 million hours99% of the task within reach
- Gather and organize information on problems or procedures.Management Analysts44 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Compile, record, and evaluate personal and financial data to verify completeness and accuracy, and to determine eligibility status.Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs43 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain case history records and prepare reports.Child, Family, and School Social Workers41 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works