Subsector, 332
Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing
1,436,510 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $62,740 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 609 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 34%
- 5%
- 61%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 17% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 21%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 83% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | 67,090 | 35% | 48 million | $74K |
| Team Assemblers | 125,250 | 18% | 46 million | $45K |
| Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers | 112,520 | 16% | 38 million | $51K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 34,800 | 43% | 31 million | $47K |
| Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators | 57,940 | 25% | 30 million | $50K |
| Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers | 47,990 | 28% | 28 million | $49K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 29,360 | 44% | 27 million | $76K |
| Office Clerks, General | 21,730 | 58% | 26 million | $47K |
| Machinists | 101,640 | 11% | 24 million | $55K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 14,680 | 76% | 23 million | $52K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 11,660 | 67% | 16 million | $52K |
| Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks | 12,100 | 63% | 16 million | $59K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 232 smaller jobs (239,150 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Review work orders and blueprints to ensure work is performed according to specifications.Team Assemblers22 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Design fixtures, tooling, or experimental parts to meet special engineering needs.Machinists21 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and develop new products and production processes.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers20 million hours96% of the task within reach
- Determine work assignments and procedures.Team Assemblers16 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop templates and models for welding projects, using mathematical calculations based on blueprint information.Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers16 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers16 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Determine required equipment and welding methods, applying knowledge of metallurgy, geometry, and welding techniques.Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers15 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Program computers or electronic instruments, such as numerically controlled machine tools.Machinists14 million hours97% of the task within reach
- Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers11 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Establish work procedures for fabricating new structural products, using a variety of metalworking machines.Machinists9.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing (3323 and 3324 only)515,010 people20% now, 32% by 2028
- Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing (3321, 3322, 3325, 3326, and 3329 only)461,780 people21% now, 35% by 2028
- Machine Shops; Turned Product; and Screw, Nut, and Bolt Manufacturing331,130 people22% now, 37% by 2028
- Coating, Engraving, Heat Treating, and Allied Activities128,580 people17% now, 26% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works