Subsector, 324
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing
112,470 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $98,280 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 72 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 41%
- 12%
- 48%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 27% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 79,418 people in jobs so far, 71% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 37 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 13 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 11 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 31%
- 9%
- 8%
- 7%
- 46%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 79,418 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself42,024 (53%)
- The hands-on craft40,823 (51%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts30,431 (38%)
- Judgment where errors are severe21,170 (27%)
- The conversations5,607 (7%)
- Running AI inside the business systems3,400 (4%)
- Signing off under your license2,890 (4%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization2,090 (3%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 32%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 51% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 43% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 25% in a purpose-built cell, 17% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.62 of 3.
- Not physical 49%
- No robot shown 8%
- In a purpose-built cell 25%
- In a structured facility 17%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 79% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers | 18,720 | 45% | 18 million | $103K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | 4,980 | 48% | 4.9 million | $124K |
| Industrial Production Managers | 2,650 | 51% | 2.8 million | $156K |
| Industrial Engineers | 2,020 | 60% | 2.5 million | $127K |
| General and Operations Managers | 2,230 | 45% | 2.1 million | $157K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 1,930 | 46% | 1.9 million | $99K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers | 1,600 | 47% | 1.6 million | $135K |
| Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers | 2,570 | 27% | 1.4 million | $64K |
| Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks | 890 | 72% | 1.3 million | $93K |
| Office Clerks, General | 1,070 | 56% | 1.3 million | $53K |
| Industrial Machinery Mechanics | 4,560 | 13% | 1.2 million | $94K |
| Chemists | 1,390 | 40% | 1.2 million | $101K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 132 smaller jobs (22,930 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 96% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Plan movement of products through lines to processing, storage, and shipping units, using knowledge of system interconnections and capacities.Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers4.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Monitor process indicators, instruments, gauges, and meters to detect and report any possible problems.Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers3.5 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Operate control panels to coordinate and regulate process variables such as temperature and pressure, and to direct product flow rate, according to process schedules.Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers2.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Coordinate shutdowns and major projects.Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers2.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Record and compile operating data, instrument readings, documentation, and results of laboratory analyses.Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers1.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Read and analyze specifications, schedules, logs, test results, and laboratory recommendations to determine how to set equipment controls to produce the required qualities and quantities of products.Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers1.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers1.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and develop new products and production processes.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers1.1 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Develop or implement production tracking or quality control systems, analyzing production, quality control, maintenance, or other operational reports to detect production problems.Industrial Production Managers944,943 hours100% of the task within reach
- Synchronize activities with other pumphouses to ensure a continuous flow of products and a minimum of contamination between products.Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers917,759 hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 32% of the paid hours in Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing are within reach of AI models now and 40% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (38% to 40% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers (18,720 people, 45% of their time, about 18 million hours a year); First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers (4,980 people, 48% of their time, about 4.9 million hours a year); and Industrial Production Managers (2,650 people, 51% of their time, about 2.8 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Plan movement of products through lines to processing, storage, and shipping units, using knowledge of system interconnections and capacities (Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers, about 4.2 million hours a year); Monitor process indicators, instruments, gauges, and meters to detect and report any possible problems (Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers, about 3.5 million hours a year); and Operate control panels to coordinate and regulate process variables such as temperature and pressure, and to direct product flow rate, according to process schedules (Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers, about 2.6 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing learn first?
- Among the 79,418 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are reviewing work you did not do yourself (42,024 people); the hands-on craft (40,823 people); and briefing a model and checking its drafts (30,431 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 60% of their working time stays with people, 34% becomes checking a model's work and 5% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 96% of its people, and 71% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.