Subsector, 322
Paper Manufacturing
353,210 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $67,120 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 146 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 24%
- 9%
- 67%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 17% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 320,424 people in jobs so far, 91% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 94 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 44 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 31 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 18%
- 7%
- 5%
- 5%
- 66%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 320,424 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft228,930 (71%)
- Judgment where errors are severe130,420 (41%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself111,934 (35%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts71,201 (22%)
- The conversations17,613 (5%)
- Signing off under your license16,070 (5%)
- Running AI inside the business systems12,670 (4%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization7,770 (2%)
- Handling protected records40 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 12%. Today's estimate: 20%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 67% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 55% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 36% in a purpose-built cell, 19% in a structured facility. 0.74 of 3.
- Not physical 33%
- No robot shown 12%
- In a purpose-built cell 36%
- In a structured facility 19%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 87% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | 17,540 | 48% | 17 million | $83K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 7,490 | 53% | 8.3 million | $51K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 5,600 | 64% | 7.5 million | $60K |
| Industrial Production Managers | 6,640 | 51% | 7.1 million | $130K |
| Industrial Engineers | 5,560 | 60% | 6.9 million | $101K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 7,140 | 46% | 6.9 million | $81K |
| Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks | 3,570 | 72% | 5.3 million | $67K |
| General and Operations Managers | 4,310 | 45% | 4 million | $161K |
| Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers | 6,680 | 27% | 3.7 million | $47K |
| Industrial Machinery Mechanics | 13,230 | 13% | 3.5 million | $78K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 1,900 | 88% | 3.5 million | $53K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 17,930 | 9% | 3.4 million | $46K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 146 smaller jobs (45,490 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers4.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and develop new products and production processes.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers3.8 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers2.8 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand2.5 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop or implement production tracking or quality control systems, analyzing production, quality control, maintenance, or other operational reports to detect production problems.Industrial Production Managers2.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Determine standards, budgets, production goals, and rates, based on company policies, equipment and labor availability, and workloads.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers2.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare documents, such as work orders, bills of lading, or shipping orders, to route materials.Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and establish sequence of operations to fabricate and assemble parts or products and to promote efficient utilization.Industrial Engineers1.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Calculate labor and equipment requirements and production specifications, using standard formulas.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers1.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze test results, machine error messages, or information obtained from operators to diagnose equipment problems.Industrial Machinery Mechanics1.7 million hours70% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Paper Manufacturing is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 20% of the paid hours in Paper Manufacturing are within reach of AI models now and 24% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Paper Manufacturing carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers (17,540 people, 48% of their time, about 17 million hours a year); Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks (7,490 people, 53% of their time, about 8.3 million hours a year); and Customer Service Representatives (5,600 people, 64% of their time, about 7.5 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Paper Manufacturing carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals (First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers, about 4.1 million hours a year); Plan and develop new products and production processes (First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers, about 3.8 million hours a year); and Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs (First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers, about 2.8 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Paper Manufacturing learn first?
- Among the 320,424 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (228,930 people); judgment where errors are severe (130,420 people); and reviewing work you did not do yourself (111,934 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 75% of their working time stays with people, 20% becomes checking a model's work and 5% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Paper Manufacturing (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 98% of its people, and 91% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.