Industry group, 3222
Converted Paper Product Manufacturing
270,970 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $63,060 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 82 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 24%
- 8%
- 68%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 12% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 13%. Today's estimate: 15%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 90% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | 12,560 | 32% | 8.3 million | $79K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 5,110 | 64% | 6.8 million | $60K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 5,980 | 53% | 6.6 million | $50K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 6,470 | 36% | 4.8 million | $80K |
| Printing Press Operators | 8,310 | 24% | 4.2 million | $54K |
| Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks | 2,860 | 63% | 3.8 million | $64K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 15,030 | 9% | 2.8 million | $45K |
| Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers | 5,520 | 24% | 2.8 million | $46K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 1,670 | 78% | 2.7 million | $52K |
| Industrial Production Managers | 4,580 | 24% | 2.3 million | $122K |
| Industrial Machinery Mechanics | 6,700 | 15% | 2.1 million | $71K |
| Office Clerks, General | 1,900 | 54% | 2.1 million | $48K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 127 smaller jobs (27,570 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers2.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and develop new products and production processes.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers2.6 million hours67% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand2.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare documents, such as work orders, bills of lading, or shipping orders, to route materials.Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks1.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop or implement production tracking or quality control systems, analyzing production, quality control, maintenance, or other operational reports to detect production problems.Industrial Production Managers1.5 million hours92% of the task within reach
- Determine standards, budgets, production goals, and rates, based on company policies, equipment and labor availability, and workloads.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers1.5 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Monitor market conditions, product innovations, and competitors' products, prices, and sales.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products1.5 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Calculate labor and equipment requirements and production specifications, using standard formulas.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers1.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze test results, machine error messages, or information obtained from operators to diagnose equipment problems.Industrial Machinery Mechanics1.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works