Subsector, 327
Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing
414,630 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $62,190 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 155 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 27%
- 4%
- 69%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 15% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 17%. Today's estimate: 18%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 83% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 74,870 | 15% | 24 million | $57K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | 15,240 | 35% | 11 million | $76K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 10,750 | 44% | 9.9 million | $77K |
| Office Clerks, General | 6,530 | 58% | 7.9 million | $47K |
| Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 4,340 | 80% | 7.2 million | $61K |
| Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers | 10,330 | 28% | 6 million | $52K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 3,730 | 76% | 5.9 million | $53K |
| Team Assemblers | 15,130 | 18% | 5.5 million | $46K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 3,620 | 67% | 5 million | $49K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 17,660 | 11% | 4.1 million | $44K |
| General and Operations Managers | 9,970 | 19% | 3.8 million | $112K |
| Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks | 2,760 | 63% | 3.6 million | $61K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 189 smaller jobs (68,440 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers6.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and develop new products and production processes.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers4.6 million hours96% of the task within reach
- Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers3.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan or adjust routes based on changing conditions, using computer equipment, global positioning systems (GPS) equipment, or other navigation devices, to minimize fuel consumption and carbon emissions.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers3.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Collect delivery instructions from appropriate sources, verifying instructions and routes.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers2.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Check all load-related documentation for completeness and accuracy.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers2.8 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Report vehicle defects, accidents, traffic violations, or damage to the vehicles.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers2.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Review work orders and blueprints to ensure work is performed according to specifications.Team Assemblers2.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare daily work and run schedules.Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance2.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Read and interpret maps to determine vehicle routes.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers2.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works