Industry group, 4882
Support Activities for Rail Transportation
42,340 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $62,250 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 16 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 22%
- 9%
- 69%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 16% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 24,870 people in jobs so far, 59% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 8.7 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 4.5 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 3.5 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 21%
- 9%
- 8%
- 7%
- 56%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 24,870 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft15,603 (63%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself9,747 (39%)
- Judgment where errors are severe6,960 (28%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts6,507 (26%)
- The conversations2,943 (12%)
- Running AI inside the business systems1,620 (7%)
- Signing off under your license1,460 (6%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization50 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 13%. Today's estimate: 19%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 66% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 47% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 25% in a purpose-built cell, 21% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.70 of 3.
- Not physical 34%
- No robot shown 19%
- In a purpose-built cell 25%
- In a structured facility 21%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 90% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers | 1,400 | 47% | 1.4 million | $76K |
| General and Operations Managers | 1,400 | 45% | 1.3 million | $99K |
| Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders | 2,190 | 20% | 924,706 | $61K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 4,640 | 9% | 868,608 | $43K |
| Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters | 990 | 33% | 677,477 | $48K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators | 593 | 45% | 550,114 | $68K |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 1,610 | 14% | 462,134 | $51K |
| Transportation Inspectors | 730 | 30% | 457,038 | $62K |
| Office Clerks, General | 380 | 56% | 446,576 | $46K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 340 | 59% | 415,129 | $47K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand | 593 | 33% | 411,969 | $68K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 220 | 88% | 403,146 | $50K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 64 smaller jobs (4,200 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 96% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Monitor product movement to and from storage tanks, coordinating activities with other workers to ensure constant product flow.Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders691,753 hours100% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand646,244 hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop or implement electronic maintenance programs or computer information management systems.First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers467,695 hours100% of the task within reach
- Record conditions of cars, and repair and maintenance work performed or to be performed.Rail Car Repairers339,578 hours100% of the task within reach
- Record operating data such as products and quantities pumped, gauge readings, and operating times, manually or using computers.Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders232,406 hours100% of the task within reach
- Participate in budget preparation and administration, coordinating purchasing and documentation and monitoring departmental expenditures.First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers220,143 hours100% of the task within reach
- Read work orders or receive oral instructions to determine work assignments or material or equipment needs.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand218,648 hours50% of the task within reach
- Review schedules, switching orders, way bills, and shipping records to obtain cargo loading and unloading information and to plan work.Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters205,220 hours100% of the task within reach
- Direct and coordinate activities of businesses or departments concerned with the production, pricing, sales, or distribution of products.General and Operations Managers179,041 hours40% of the task within reach
- Set prices or credit terms for goods or services, based on forecasts of customer demand.General and Operations Managers171,167 hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Support Activities for Air Transportation272,420 people24% now, 27% by 2028
- Freight Transportation Arrangement251,630 people48% now, 55% by 2028
- Support Activities for Road Transportation114,040 people26% now, 27% by 2028
- Support Activities for Water Transportation94,920 people24% now, 28% by 2028
- Other Support Activities for Transportation37,610 people28% now, 31% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Support Activities for Rail Transportation is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 19% of the paid hours in Support Activities for Rail Transportation are within reach of AI models now and 22% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (21% to 22% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Support Activities for Rail Transportation carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers (1,400 people, 47% of their time, about 1.4 million hours a year); General and Operations Managers (1,400 people, 45% of their time, about 1.3 million hours a year); and Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders (2,190 people, 20% of their time, about 924,706 hours a year).
- Which tasks in Support Activities for Rail Transportation carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Monitor product movement to and from storage tanks, coordinating activities with other workers to ensure constant product flow (Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders, about 691,753 hours a year); Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets (Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand, about 646,244 hours a year); and Develop or implement electronic maintenance programs or computer information management systems (First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers, about 467,695 hours a year).
- What would people working in Support Activities for Rail Transportation learn first?
- Among the 24,870 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (15,603 people); reviewing work you did not do yourself (9,747 people); and judgment where errors are severe (6,960 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 70% of their working time stays with people, 23% becomes checking a model's work and 6% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Support Activities for Rail Transportation (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 96% of its people, and 59% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.