Industry group, 4885
Freight Transportation Arrangement
251,630 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $70,610 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 244 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 55%
- 26%
- 19%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 36% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 243,104 people in jobs so far, 97% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 139 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 103 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 99 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 34%
- 21%
- 21%
- 5%
- 19%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 243,104 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself175,621 (72%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts101,748 (42%)
- Running AI inside the business systems95,730 (39%)
- The hands-on craft45,223 (19%)
- The conversations34,077 (14%)
- Judgment where errors are severe17,610 (7%)
- Signing off under your license4,510 (2%)
- Handling protected records850 (under 1%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization560 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 33%. Today's estimate: 48%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 21% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 20% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 9% in a purpose-built cell, 10% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.31 of 3.
- Not physical 79%
- No robot shown 2%
- In a purpose-built cell 9%
- In a structured facility 10%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 93% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cargo and Freight Agents | 53,390 | 50% | 55 million | $55K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 23,890 | 59% | 29 million | $61K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 10,920 | 64% | 15 million | $50K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 7,530 | 88% | 14 million | $50K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 12,160 | 54% | 14 million | $75K |
| Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 8,350 | 73% | 13 million | $50K |
| General and Operations Managers | 12,870 | 45% | 12 million | $121K |
| Office Clerks, General | 6,090 | 56% | 7.2 million | $42K |
| Logisticians | 8,550 | 38% | 6.8 million | $58K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 5,430 | 53% | 6 million | $41K |
| Compliance Officers | 4,520 | 54% | 5.1 million | $63K |
| Accountants and Auditors | 4,840 | 45% | 4.5 million | $74K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 85 smaller jobs (18,430 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Determine method of shipment and prepare bills of lading, invoices, and other shipping documents.Cargo and Freight Agents11 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel10 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Track delivery progress of shipments.Cargo and Freight Agents7.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Check import or export documentation to determine cargo contents and use tariff coding system to classify goods according to fee or tariff group.Cargo and Freight Agents7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Keep records of all goods shipped, received, and stored.Cargo and Freight Agents6.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Estimate freight or postal rates and record shipment costs and weights.Cargo and Freight Agents5.8 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Negotiate and arrange transport of goods with shipping or freight companies.Cargo and Freight Agents5.6 million hours30% of the task within reach
- Prepare daily work and run schedules.Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance5.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Identify prospective customers using business directories, leads from clients, or information from conferences or trade shows.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel5.1 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Monitor market conditions, innovations, and competitors' services, prices, and sales.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel3.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Support Activities for Air Transportation272,420 people24% now, 27% by 2028
- Support Activities for Road Transportation114,040 people26% now, 27% by 2028
- Support Activities for Water Transportation94,920 people24% now, 28% by 2028
- Support Activities for Rail Transportation42,340 people19% now, 22% by 2028
- Other Support Activities for Transportation37,610 people28% now, 31% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Freight Transportation Arrangement is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 48% of the paid hours in Freight Transportation Arrangement are within reach of AI models now and 55% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (54% to 55% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Freight Transportation Arrangement carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Cargo and Freight Agents (53,390 people, 50% of their time, about 55 million hours a year); Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel (23,890 people, 59% of their time, about 29 million hours a year); and Customer Service Representatives (10,920 people, 64% of their time, about 15 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Freight Transportation Arrangement carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Determine method of shipment and prepare bills of lading, invoices, and other shipping documents (Cargo and Freight Agents, about 11 million hours a year); Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications (Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel, about 10 million hours a year); and Track delivery progress of shipments (Cargo and Freight Agents, about 7.1 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Freight Transportation Arrangement learn first?
- Among the 243,104 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are reviewing work you did not do yourself (175,621 people); briefing a model and checking its drafts (101,748 people); and running AI inside the business systems (95,730 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 45% of their working time stays with people, 43% becomes checking a model's work and 12% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Freight Transportation Arrangement (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 97% of its people, and 97% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.