Sector, 48-49
Transportation and Warehousing
7,448,640 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $64,330 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 3.1 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 23%
- 12%
- 66%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 6,958,278 people in jobs so far, 93% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 1.5 billion hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 1.4 billion hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 818 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 13%
- 10%
- 6%
- 6%
- 65%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 6,958,278 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft5,285,667 (76%)
- Judgment where errors are severe2,895,065 (42%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself1,414,071 (20%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts1,246,848 (18%)
- The conversations613,135 (9%)
- Signing off under your license549,530 (8%)
- Running AI inside the business systems486,010 (7%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization188,040 (3%)
- Handling protected records3,380 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 16%. Today's estimate: 20%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 68% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 61% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 23% in a purpose-built cell, 33% in a structured facility, 5% in any setting. 1.03 of 3.
- Not physical 32%
- No robot shown 7%
- In a purpose-built cell 23%
- In a structured facility 33%
- In any setting 5%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 86% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 1,187,590 | 14% | 341 million | $60K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 472,970 | 19% | 190 million | $45K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 983,490 | 9% | 184 million | $45K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 133,660 | 53% | 148 million | $47K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 99,450 | 64% | 133 million | $46K |
| Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 85,220 | 73% | 129 million | $51K |
| General and Operations Managers | 120,330 | 45% | 113 million | $104K |
| Light Truck Drivers | 476,090 | 11% | 110 million | $48K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 95,970 | 54% | 109 million | $79K |
| Office Clerks, General | 86,900 | 56% | 102 million | $45K |
| Cargo and Freight Agents | 89,580 | 50% | 92 million | $52K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 39,620 | 88% | 73 million | $50K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 375 smaller jobs (1,040,260 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 100% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand137 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers101 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan or adjust routes based on changing conditions, using computer equipment, global positioning systems (GPS) equipment, or other navigation devices, to minimize fuel consumption and carbon emissions.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers52 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare daily work and run schedules.Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance52 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain records, such as vehicle logs, records of cargo, or billing statements, in accordance with regulations.Light Truck Drivers48 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Read work orders or receive oral instructions to determine work assignments or material or equipment needs.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand46 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Check all load-related documentation for completeness and accuracy.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers45 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Read and interpret maps to determine vehicle routes.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers41 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare documents, such as work orders, bills of lading, or shipping orders, to route materials.Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks36 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Determine proper storage methods, identification, and stock location, based on turnover, environmental factors, and physical capabilities of facilities.Stockers and Order Fillers35 million hours80% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Warehousing and Storage1,963,680 people20% now, 22% by 2028
- Truck Transportation1,499,660 people21% now, 23% by 2028
- Couriers and Messengers1,110,140 people16% now, 17% by 2028
- Support Activities for Transportation812,950 people32% now, 36% by 2028
- Postal Service (Federal Government)618,900 people10% now, 11% by 2028
- Air Transportation563,220 people21% now, 23% by 2028
- Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation532,510 people19% now, 22% by 2028
- Rail Transportation190,930 people21% now, 24% by 2028
- Water Transportation69,600 people27% now, 33% by 2028
- Pipeline Transportation56,210 people32% now, 40% by 2028
- Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation30,850 people24% now, 26% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Transportation and Warehousing is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 20% of the paid hours in Transportation and Warehousing are within reach of AI models now and 22% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (22% to 23% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Transportation and Warehousing carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (1,187,590 people, 14% of their time, about 341 million hours a year); Stockers and Order Fillers (472,970 people, 19% of their time, about 190 million hours a year); and Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand (983,490 people, 9% of their time, about 184 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Transportation and Warehousing carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets (Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand, about 137 million hours a year); Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations (Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers, about 101 million hours a year); and Plan or adjust routes based on changing conditions, using computer equipment, global positioning systems (GPS) equipment, or other navigation devices, to minimize fuel consumption and carbon emissions (Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers, about 52 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Transportation and Warehousing learn first?
- Among the 6,958,278 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (5,285,667 people); judgment where errors are severe (2,895,065 people); and reviewing work you did not do yourself (1,414,071 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 77% of their working time stays with people, 16% becomes checking a model's work and 7% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Transportation and Warehousing (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 100% of its people, and 93% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.