Sector, 48-49
Transportation and Warehousing
7,448,640 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $64,330 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 3 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 25%
- 4%
- 71%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 17% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 19%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 86% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 1,187,590 | 15% | 380 million | $60K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 983,490 | 11% | 229 million | $45K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 472,970 | 18% | 174 million | $45K |
| Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks | 92,920 | 74% | 142 million | $45K |
| Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 85,220 | 80% | 141 million | $51K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 99,450 | 67% | 138 million | $46K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 133,660 | 43% | 119 million | $47K |
| Light Truck Drivers | 476,090 | 12% | 117 million | $48K |
| Office Clerks, General | 86,900 | 58% | 105 million | $45K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 95,970 | 47% | 94 million | $79K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 58,780 | 69% | 84 million | $69K |
| Cargo and Freight Agents | 89,580 | 45% | 83 million | $52K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 375 smaller jobs (1,040,260 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 100% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand137 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers101 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Read work orders or receive oral instructions to determine work assignments or material or equipment needs.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand93 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan or adjust routes based on changing conditions, using computer equipment, global positioning systems (GPS) equipment, or other navigation devices, to minimize fuel consumption and carbon emissions.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers52 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare daily work and run schedules.Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance52 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain records, such as vehicle logs, records of cargo, or billing statements, in accordance with regulations.Light Truck Drivers48 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Collect delivery instructions from appropriate sources, verifying instructions and routes.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers47 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Check all load-related documentation for completeness and accuracy.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers45 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Determine proper storage methods, identification, and stock location, based on turnover, environmental factors, and physical capabilities of facilities.Stockers and Order Fillers44 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Recommend disposal of excess, defective, or obsolete stock.Stockers and Order Fillers43 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Warehousing and Storage1,963,680 people17% now, 23% by 2028
- Truck Transportation1,499,660 people21% now, 25% by 2028
- Couriers and Messengers1,110,140 people17% now, 19% by 2028
- Support Activities for Transportation812,950 people27% now, 39% by 2028
- Postal Service (Federal Government)618,900 people10% now, 13% by 2028
- Air Transportation563,220 people24% now, 29% by 2028
- Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation532,510 people23% now, 28% by 2028
- Rail Transportation190,930 people18% now, 25% by 2028
- Water Transportation69,600 people20% now, 34% by 2028
- Pipeline Transportation56,210 people22% now, 40% by 2028
- Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation30,850 people21% now, 30% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works