Subsector, 482
Rail Transportation
190,930 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $85,890 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 66 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 25%
- 6%
- 69%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 15% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 15%. Today's estimate: 17%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 90% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters | 40,760 | 32% | 27 million | $78K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers | 5,940 | 27% | 3.3 million | $100K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers | 4,690 | 27% | 2.6 million | $99K |
| Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 1,530 | 80% | 2.5 million | $95K |
| Locomotive Engineers | 31,840 | 3% | 1.9 million | $82K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 1,080 | 64% | 1.4 million | $61K |
| Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks | 900 | 74% | 1.4 million | $62K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators | 1,297 | 51% | 1.4 million | $102K |
| Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers | 9,620 | 7% | 1.3 million | $71K |
| Office Clerks, General | 1,140 | 54% | 1.3 million | $56K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand | 1,297 | 44% | 1.2 million | $102K |
| Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers | 3,290 | 16% | 1.1 million | $86K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 120 smaller jobs (18,200 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Review schedules, switching orders, way bills, and shipping records to obtain cargo loading and unloading information and to plan work.Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters8.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Keep records of the contents and destination of each train car, and make sure that cars are added or removed at proper points on routes.Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters6.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Document and prepare reports of accidents, unscheduled stops, or delays.Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters3.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Confirm routes and destination information for freight cars.Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Arrange for the removal of defective cars from trains at stations or stops.Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters2.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Receive instructions from dispatchers regarding trains' routes, timetables, and cargoes.Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters2.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop or implement electronic maintenance programs or computer information management systems.First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers1.9 million hours96% of the task within reach
- Interpret train orders, signals, or railroad rules and regulations that govern the operation of locomotives.Locomotive Engineers1.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Receive information regarding train or rail problems from dispatchers or from electronic monitoring devices.Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters1.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Estimate material or worker requirements to complete jobs.First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers1.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works