Industry group, 4821
Rail Transportation
190,930 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $85,890 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 82 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 24%
- 8%
- 68%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 66,168 people in jobs so far, 35% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 33 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 13 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 13 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 32%
- 11%
- 11%
- 10%
- 37%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 66,168 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself41,791 (63%)
- The hands-on craft25,827 (39%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts24,673 (37%)
- Judgment where errors are severe15,865 (24%)
- The conversations11,060 (17%)
- Running AI inside the business systems5,640 (9%)
- Signing off under your license4,100 (6%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization940 (1%)
- Handling protected records50 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 14%. Today's estimate: 21%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 49% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 34% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 17% in a purpose-built cell, 15% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.51 of 3.
- Not physical 51%
- No robot shown 16%
- In a purpose-built cell 17%
- In a structured facility 15%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 90% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters | 40,760 | 33% | 28 million | $78K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers | 5,940 | 47% | 5.8 million | $100K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers | 4,690 | 32% | 3.1 million | $99K |
| Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 1,530 | 73% | 2.3 million | $95K |
| General and Operations Managers | 2,330 | 45% | 2.2 million | $138K |
| Machinists | 3,440 | 27% | 1.9 million | $88K |
| Locomotive Engineers | 31,840 | 3% | 1.9 million | $82K |
| Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers | 2,740 | 32% | 1.8 million | $128K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 1,080 | 64% | 1.4 million | $61K |
| Software Developers | 1,410 | 48% | 1.4 million | $131K |
| Office Clerks, General | 1,140 | 56% | 1.3 million | $56K |
| Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers | 9,620 | 7% | 1.3 million | $71K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 120 smaller jobs (18,200 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Review schedules, switching orders, way bills, and shipping records to obtain cargo loading and unloading information and to plan work.Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters8.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Keep records of the contents and destination of each train car, and make sure that cars are added or removed at proper points on routes.Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters6.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Document and prepare reports of accidents, unscheduled stops, or delays.Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters3.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Confirm routes and destination information for freight cars.Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Arrange for the removal of defective cars from trains at stations or stops.Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters2.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Receive instructions from dispatchers regarding trains' routes, timetables, and cargoes.Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters2.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop or implement electronic maintenance programs or computer information management systems.First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Interpret train orders, signals, or railroad rules and regulations that govern the operation of locomotives.Locomotive Engineers1.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Receive information regarding train or rail problems from dispatchers or from electronic monitoring devices.Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters1.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Estimate material or worker requirements to complete jobs.First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers1.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Rail Transportation is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 21% of the paid hours in Rail Transportation are within reach of AI models now and 24% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Rail Transportation carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters (40,760 people, 33% of their time, about 28 million hours a year); First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers (5,940 people, 47% of their time, about 5.8 million hours a year); and First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers (4,690 people, 32% of their time, about 3.1 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Rail Transportation carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Review schedules, switching orders, way bills, and shipping records to obtain cargo loading and unloading information and to plan work (Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters, about 8.4 million hours a year); Keep records of the contents and destination of each train car, and make sure that cars are added or removed at proper points on routes (Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters, about 6.4 million hours a year); and Document and prepare reports of accidents, unscheduled stops, or delays (Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters, about 3.2 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Rail Transportation learn first?
- Among the 66,168 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are reviewing work you did not do yourself (41,791 people); the hands-on craft (25,827 people); and briefing a model and checking its drafts (24,673 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 57% of their working time stays with people, 38% becomes checking a model's work and 5% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Rail Transportation (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 98% of its people, and 35% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.