Subsector, 483
Water Transportation
69,600 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $86,030 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 27 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 34%
- 11%
- 55%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 15% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 20%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 90% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer Service Representatives | 5,270 | 64% | 7.1 million | $34K |
| Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels | 14,610 | 5% | 1.6 million | $101K |
| Travel Agents | 1,640 | 39% | 1.3 million | $38K |
| Sailors and Marine Oilers | 13,540 | 4% | 1.2 million | $52K |
| Cargo and Freight Agents | 1,230 | 45% | 1.1 million | $72K |
| Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks | 670 | 74% | 1 million | $41K |
| Concierges | 680 | 67% | 946,235 | $36K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 560 | 78% | 903,886 | $52K |
| Office Clerks, General | 780 | 54% | 880,964 | $52K |
| General and Operations Managers | 1,660 | 23% | 787,243 | $163K |
| Ship Engineers | 3,700 | 9% | 700,337 | $123K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 760 | 43% | 679,746 | $93K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 84 smaller jobs (6,650 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 96% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Maintain government-issued certifications, as required.Sailors and Marine Oilers5 million hours95% of the task within reach
- Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills.Customer Service Representatives1.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete contract forms, prepare change of address records, or issue service discontinuance orders, using computers.Customer Service Representatives1.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain records of daily activities, personnel reports, ship positions and movements, ports of call, weather and sea conditions, pollution control efforts, or cargo or passenger status.Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels853,014 hours100% of the task within reach
- Check to ensure that appropriate changes were made to resolve customers' problems.Customer Service Representatives848,252 hours80% of the task within reach
- Keep records of customer interactions or transactions, recording details of inquiries, complaints, or comments, as well as actions taken.Customer Service Representatives795,812 hours100% of the task within reach
- Learn to operate new technology systems and procedures through instruction, simulators, or models.Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels771,480 hours98% of the task within reach
- Review insurance policy terms to determine whether a particular loss is covered by insurance.Customer Service Representatives642,240 hours100% of the task within reach
- Resolve customers' service or billing complaints by performing activities such as exchanging merchandise, refunding money, or adjusting bills.Customer Service Representatives556,794 hours50% of the task within reach
- Confer with customers by telephone or in person to provide information about products or services, take or enter orders, cancel accounts, or obtain details of complaints.Customer Service Representatives547,170 hours30% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works