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Sailors and Marine Oilers

Stand watch to look for obstructions in path of vessel, measure water depth, turn wheel on bridge, or use emergency equipment as directed by captain, mate, or pilot. Break out, rig, overhaul, and store cargo-handling gear, stationary rigging, and running gear. Perform a variety of maintenance tasks to preserve the painted surface of the ship and to maintain line and ship equipment. Must hold government-issued certification and tankerman certification when working aboard liquid-carrying vessels. Includes able seamen and ordinary seamen.

31,670 people do this job in the US. $51,520 a year.

now
4%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 20%
  • 0%
  • 80%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
July 2027

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 20% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 3%. Today's estimate: 4%.

0%5%10%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 1% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 1% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 1% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 1% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 1% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 1% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 3% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 4% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 24 tasks from .

TaskKind
Maintain government-issued certifications, as required.Done yearly or less by most who do it. 19%3.3 h50 min to 2.1 work days18%Half by Jul 2027
Tie barges together into tow units for tugboats to handle, inspecting barges periodically during voyages and disconnecting them when destinations are reached.Done more than weekly by most who do it.12%2.5 h25 min to 5 hStays with people
Break out, rig, and stow cargo-handling gear, stationary rigging, or running gear.Done daily by most who do it.9%1.3 h25 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Stand watch in ships' bows or bridge wings to look for obstructions in a ship's path or to locate navigational aids, such as buoys or lighthouses.Done daily by most who do it. 8%1.7 h50 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Sweep, mop, and wash down decks to remove oil, dirt, and debris, using brooms, mops, brushes, and hoses.Done daily by most who do it. 7%1.3 h25 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Handle lines to moor vessels to wharfs, to tie up vessels to other vessels, or to rig towing lines.Done daily by most who do it. 5%25 min13 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Paint or varnish decks, superstructures, lifeboats, or sides of ships.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 5%2.5 h50 min to 6.7 hStays with people
Operate, maintain, or repair ship equipment, such as winches, cranes, derricks, or weapons system.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 4%1.7 h25 min to 5 hStays with people
Chip and clean rust spots on decks, superstructures, or sides of ships, using wire brushes and hand or air chipping machines.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 4%2.5 h25 min to 6.7 hStays with people
Load or unload materials, vehicles, or passengers from vessels.Done more than weekly by most who do it.4%2.5 h25 min to 1 work dayStays with people
Provide engineers with assistance in repairing or adjusting machinery.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 4%2.5 h38 min to 6.7 hStays with people
Examine machinery to verify specified pressures or lubricant flows.Done daily by most who do it.3%38 min13 min to 1.3 hStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).