Industry group, 4872
Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation, Water
17,110 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $57,460 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 6.8 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 25%
- 13%
- 62%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 16% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 6,370 people in jobs so far, 37% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 2.9 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 2 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 1.8 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 25%
- 15%
- 14%
- 15%
- 30%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 6,370 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft2,730 (43%)
- The conversations2,530 (40%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself2,460 (39%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts2,190 (34%)
- Running AI inside the business systems1,200 (19%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization630 (10%)
- Judgment where errors are severe550 (9%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 13%. Today's estimate: 22%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 51% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 39% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 21% in a purpose-built cell, 12% in a structured facility, 6% in any setting. 0.62 of 3.
- Not physical 49%
- No robot shown 12%
- In a purpose-built cell 21%
- In a structured facility 12%
- In any setting 6%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 34 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels | 4,240 | 7% | 626,167 | $60K |
| Office Clerks, General | 530 | 56% | 622,856 | $46K |
| General and Operations Managers | 660 | 45% | 617,765 | $108K |
| Sailors and Marine Oilers | 1,850 | 13% | 492,554 | $37K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 350 | 59% | 427,337 | $69K |
| Travel Guides | 495 | 39% | 404,634 | $38K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 210 | 88% | 384,821 | $51K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 230 | 64% | 308,090 | $49K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 230 | 59% | 280,822 | $44K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 230 | 54% | 260,251 | $72K |
| Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks | 340 | 36% | 256,714 | $39K |
| Tour Guides and Escorts | 495 | 20% | 209,011 | $38K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 22 smaller jobs (740 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 87% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Maintain government-issued certifications, as required.Sailors and Marine Oilers719,731 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain records of daily activities, personnel reports, ship positions and movements, ports of call, weather and sea conditions, pollution control efforts, or cargo or passenger status.Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels247,555 hours100% of the task within reach
- Learn to operate new technology systems and procedures through instruction, simulators, or models.Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels229,060 hours100% of the task within reach
- Research various topics, including site history, environmental conditions, and clients' skills and abilities to plan appropriate expeditions, instruction, and commentary.Tour Guides and Escorts180,940 hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel149,524 hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar.Bartenders143,550 hours50% of the task within reach
- Arrange for ships to be fueled, restocked with supplies, or repaired.Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels141,284 hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan tour itineraries, applying knowledge of travel routes and destination sites.Travel Guides139,634 hours100% of the task within reach
- Arrange for tour or expedition details such as accommodations, transportation, equipment, and the availability of medical personnel.Travel Guides135,145 hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General132,751 hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation, Water is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 22% of the paid hours in Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation, Water are within reach of AI models now and 25% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (24% to 25% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation, Water carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels (4,240 people, 7% of their time, about 626,163 hours a year); Office Clerks, General (530 people, 56% of their time, about 622,856 hours a year); and General and Operations Managers (660 people, 45% of their time, about 617,760 hours a year).
- Which tasks in Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation, Water carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Maintain government-issued certifications, as required (Sailors and Marine Oilers, about 719,731 hours a year); Maintain records of daily activities, personnel reports, ship positions and movements, ports of call, weather and sea conditions, pollution control efforts, or cargo or passenger status (Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels, about 247,555 hours a year); and Learn to operate new technology systems and procedures through instruction, simulators, or models (Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels, about 229,060 hours a year).
- What would people working in Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation, Water learn first?
- Among the 6,370 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (2,730 people); the conversations (2,530 people); and reviewing work you did not do yourself (2,460 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 59% of their working time stays with people, 26% becomes checking a model's work and 15% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation, Water (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 87% of its people, and 37% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.