Subsector, 487
Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation
30,850 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $56,040 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 12 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 29%
- 10%
- 62%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 15% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 17%. Today's estimate: 20%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 88% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks | 880 | 74% | 1.3 million | $41K |
| Office Clerks, General | 860 | 54% | 971,319 | $46K |
| Travel Guides | 1,820 | 24% | 893,406 | $42K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 500 | 64% | 669,760 | $40K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 700 | 43% | 626,082 | $47K |
| General and Operations Managers | 1,280 | 23% | 607,031 | $99K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 310 | 78% | 500,365 | $50K |
| Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity | 2,190 | 11% | 496,517 | $50K |
| Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels | 4,290 | 5% | 464,008 | $61K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 410 | 43% | 363,294 | $44K |
| Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs | 620 | 28% | 362,378 | $36K |
| Tour Guides and Escorts | 1,820 | 9% | 355,849 | $42K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 52 smaller jobs (3,360 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 94% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Maintain government-issued certifications, as required.Sailors and Marine Oilers687,716 hours95% of the task within reach
- Research various topics, including site history, environmental conditions, and clients' skills and abilities to plan appropriate expeditions, instruction, and commentary.Tour Guides and Escorts663,610 hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan tour itineraries, applying knowledge of travel routes and destination sites.Travel Guides513,334 hours100% of the task within reach
- Arrange for tour or expedition details such as accommodations, transportation, equipment, and the availability of medical personnel.Travel Guides496,831 hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel299,008 hours100% of the task within reach
- Make and confirm reservations for transportation and accommodations, using telephones, faxes, mail, and computers.Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks279,008 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain records of daily activities, personnel reports, ship positions and movements, ports of call, weather and sea conditions, pollution control efforts, or cargo or passenger status.Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels250,474 hours100% of the task within reach
- Record information, such as cash receipts and ticket fares, and maintain log book.Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity235,367 hours100% of the task within reach
- Learn to operate new technology systems and procedures through instruction, simulators, or models.Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels226,533 hours98% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General215,407 hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works