Subsector, 487
Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation
30,850 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $56,040 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 14 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 26%
- 14%
- 59%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 16,520 people in jobs so far, 54% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 5.8 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 4.4 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 3.9 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 20%
- 13%
- 12%
- 12%
- 43%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 16,520 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft9,037 (55%)
- Judgment where errors are severe5,290 (32%)
- The conversations5,060 (31%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself4,833 (29%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts4,380 (27%)
- Running AI inside the business systems2,260 (14%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization1,350 (8%)
- Signing off under your license250 (2%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 15%. Today's estimate: 24%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 52% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 40% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 18% in a purpose-built cell, 17% in a structured facility, 5% in any setting. 0.67 of 3.
- Not physical 48%
- No robot shown 12%
- In a purpose-built cell 18%
- In a structured facility 17%
- In any setting 5%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 88% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel Guides | 1,820 | 39% | 1.5 million | $42K |
| General and Operations Managers | 1,280 | 45% | 1.2 million | $99K |
| Office Clerks, General | 860 | 56% | 1 million | $46K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 700 | 59% | 854,673 | $47K |
| Tour Guides and Escorts | 1,820 | 20% | 768,484 | $42K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 500 | 64% | 669,760 | $40K |
| Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks | 880 | 36% | 664,435 | $41K |
| Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels | 4,290 | 7% | 633,551 | $61K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 310 | 88% | 568,069 | $50K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 410 | 59% | 500,596 | $44K |
| Sailors and Marine Oilers | 1,850 | 13% | 492,554 | $37K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 390 | 54% | 441,295 | $70K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 52 smaller jobs (3,360 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 94% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Maintain government-issued certifications, as required.Sailors and Marine Oilers719,731 hours100% of the task within reach
- Research various topics, including site history, environmental conditions, and clients' skills and abilities to plan appropriate expeditions, instruction, and commentary.Tour Guides and Escorts665,275 hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan tour itineraries, applying knowledge of travel routes and destination sites.Travel Guides513,403 hours100% of the task within reach
- Arrange for tour or expedition details such as accommodations, transportation, equipment, and the availability of medical personnel.Travel Guides496,898 hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel299,048 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain records of daily activities, personnel reports, ship positions and movements, ports of call, weather and sea conditions, pollution control efforts, or cargo or passenger status.Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels250,474 hours100% of the task within reach
- Record information, such as cash receipts and ticket fares, and maintain log book.Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity235,367 hours100% of the task within reach
- Learn to operate new technology systems and procedures through instruction, simulators, or models.Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels231,762 hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General215,407 hours100% of the task within reach
- Evaluate services received on the tour, and report findings to tour organizers.Travel Guides180,270 hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 24% of the paid hours in Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation are within reach of AI models now and 26% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Travel Guides (1,820 people, 39% of their time, about 1.5 million hours a year); General and Operations Managers (1,280 people, 45% of their time, about 1.2 million hours a year); and Office Clerks, General (860 people, 56% of their time, about 1 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Maintain government-issued certifications, as required (Sailors and Marine Oilers, about 719,731 hours a year); Research various topics, including site history, environmental conditions, and clients' skills and abilities to plan appropriate expeditions, instruction, and commentary (Tour Guides and Escorts, about 665,275 hours a year); and Plan tour itineraries, applying knowledge of travel routes and destination sites (Travel Guides, about 513,403 hours a year).
- What would people working in Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation learn first?
- Among the 16,520 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (9,037 people); judgment where errors are severe (5,290 people); and the conversations (5,060 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 67% of their working time stays with people, 22% becomes checking a model's work and 11% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 94% of its people, and 54% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.