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STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
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Industry group, 4831

Deep Sea, Coastal, and Great Lakes Water Transportation

41,170 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $85,120 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.

now
26%

of the paid hours. Estimate.

$896M

a year: 21 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.

Kinds of work
  • 44%
  • 16%
  • 40%
7%

of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 19% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.

Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.

Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 44% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 24%. Today's estimate: 26%.

0%10%20%30%40%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 3% within reacho3, April 2025: 10% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 12% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 15% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 15% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 17% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 17% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 24% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 26% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

Where the hours are

Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 88% of the people.

People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 66 smaller jobs (4,580 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 92% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.

The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028

Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.

  1. Maintain government-issued certifications, as required.Sailors and Marine Oilers
    1.7 million hours95% of the task within reach
  2. Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills.Customer Service Representatives
    1.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
  3. Complete contract forms, prepare change of address records, or issue service discontinuance orders, using computers.Customer Service Representatives
    1.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
  4. Check to ensure that appropriate changes were made to resolve customers' problems.Customer Service Representatives
    832,157 hours80% of the task within reach
  5. Keep records of customer interactions or transactions, recording details of inquiries, complaints, or comments, as well as actions taken.Customer Service Representatives
    780,711 hours100% of the task within reach
  6. Review insurance policy terms to determine whether a particular loss is covered by insurance.Customer Service Representatives
    630,053 hours100% of the task within reach
  7. Resolve customers' service or billing complaints by performing activities such as exchanging merchandise, refunding money, or adjusting bills.Customer Service Representatives
    546,229 hours50% of the task within reach
  8. Confer with customers by telephone or in person to provide information about products or services, take or enter orders, cancel accounts, or obtain details of complaints.Customer Service Representatives
    536,787 hours30% of the task within reach
  9. Converse with customer to determine destination, mode of transportation, travel dates, financial considerations, and accommodations required.Travel Agents
    413,949 hours100% of the task within reach
  10. Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists
    376,048 hours90% of the task within reach

Scan a typical company in this industry

The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.

Next to this industry

Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works