Industry group, 4831
Deep Sea, Coastal, and Great Lakes Water Transportation
41,170 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $85,120 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 28 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 43%
- 19%
- 39%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 25% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 25,157 people in jobs so far, 61% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 14 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 11 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 11 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 34%
- 22%
- 23%
- 5%
- 16%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 25,157 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself19,277 (77%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts9,388 (37%)
- Running AI inside the business systems7,650 (30%)
- The hands-on craft4,120 (16%)
- The conversations3,223 (13%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization2,970 (12%)
- Judgment where errors are severe1,955 (8%)
- Signing off under your license300 (1%)
- Handling protected records40 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 22%. Today's estimate: 35%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 34% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 25% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 15% in a purpose-built cell, 7% in a structured facility, 3% in any setting. 0.38 of 3.
- Not physical 66%
- No robot shown 9%
- In a purpose-built cell 15%
- In a structured facility 7%
- In any setting 3%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 88% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer Service Representatives | 5,170 | 64% | 6.9 million | $34K |
| Travel Agents | 1,640 | 60% | 2 million | $38K |
| Sailors and Marine Oilers | 4,590 | 13% | 1.2 million | $61K |
| Cargo and Freight Agents | 1,170 | 50% | 1.2 million | $71K |
| General and Operations Managers | 1,100 | 45% | 1 million | $179K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 800 | 54% | 905,220 | $76K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 660 | 59% | 805,835 | $94K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 420 | 88% | 769,642 | $52K |
| Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels | 4,640 | 7% | 685,239 | $96K |
| Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 660 | 50% | 679,559 | $103K |
| Concierges | 670 | 41% | 567,196 | $36K |
| Accountants and Auditors | 580 | 45% | 544,102 | $88K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 66 smaller jobs (4,580 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 92% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Maintain government-issued certifications, as required.Sailors and Marine Oilers1.8 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan, describe, arrange, and sell itinerary tour packages and promotional travel incentives offered by various travel carriers.Travel Agents1.2 million hours60% of the task within reach
- Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills.Customer Service Representatives1.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete contract forms, prepare change of address records, or issue service discontinuance orders, using computers.Customer Service Representatives1.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Check to ensure that appropriate changes were made to resolve customers' problems.Customer Service Representatives832,157 hours80% of the task within reach
- Keep records of customer interactions or transactions, recording details of inquiries, complaints, or comments, as well as actions taken.Customer Service Representatives780,711 hours100% of the task within reach
- Review insurance policy terms to determine whether a particular loss is covered by insurance.Customer Service Representatives630,053 hours100% of the task within reach
- Resolve customers' service or billing complaints by performing activities such as exchanging merchandise, refunding money, or adjusting bills.Customer Service Representatives546,229 hours50% of the task within reach
- Confer with customers by telephone or in person to provide information about products or services, take or enter orders, cancel accounts, or obtain details of complaints.Customer Service Representatives536,787 hours30% of the task within reach
- Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists418,158 hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Deep Sea, Coastal, and Great Lakes Water Transportation is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 35% of the paid hours in Deep Sea, Coastal, and Great Lakes Water Transportation are within reach of AI models now and 43% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (41% to 43% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Deep Sea, Coastal, and Great Lakes Water Transportation carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Customer Service Representatives (5,170 people, 64% of their time, about 6.9 million hours a year); Travel Agents (1,640 people, 60% of their time, about 2 million hours a year); and Sailors and Marine Oilers (4,590 people, 13% of their time, about 1.2 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Deep Sea, Coastal, and Great Lakes Water Transportation carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Maintain government-issued certifications, as required (Sailors and Marine Oilers, about 1.8 million hours a year); Plan, describe, arrange, and sell itinerary tour packages and promotional travel incentives offered by various travel carriers (Travel Agents, about 1.2 million hours a year); and Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills (Customer Service Representatives, about 1.2 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Deep Sea, Coastal, and Great Lakes Water Transportation learn first?
- Among the 25,157 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are reviewing work you did not do yourself (19,277 people); briefing a model and checking its drafts (9,388 people); and running AI inside the business systems (7,650 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 43% of their working time stays with people, 45% becomes checking a model's work and 11% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Deep Sea, Coastal, and Great Lakes Water Transportation (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 92% of its people, and 61% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.