Subsector, 491
Postal Service (Federal Government)
618,900 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $65,730 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 132 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 11%
- 9%
- 80%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 9% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 601,147 people in jobs so far, 97% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 48 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 75 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 25 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 5%
- 6%
- 2%
- 6%
- 81%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 601,147 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft553,503 (92%)
- Judgment where errors are severe354,045 (59%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization74,010 (12%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself46,313 (8%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts44,235 (7%)
- The conversations6,297 (1%)
- Running AI inside the business systems3,400 (1%)
- Signing off under your license1,650 (under 1%)
- Handling protected records30 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 8%. Today's estimate: 10%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 84% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 80% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 61% in a purpose-built cell, 17% in a structured facility, 2% in any setting. 1.00 of 3.
- Not physical 16%
- No robot shown 4%
- In a purpose-built cell 61%
- In a structured facility 17%
- In any setting 2%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 13 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Postal Service Clerks | 73,720 | 19% | 30 million | $62K |
| Postal Service Mail Carriers | 328,820 | 4% | 27 million | $61K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 17,950 | 54% | 20 million | $88K |
| Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks | 5,710 | 72% | 8.6 million | $70K |
| Postmasters and Mail Superintendents | 13,810 | 23% | 6.6 million | $97K |
| Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technologists and Technicians | 3,910 | 39% | 3.1 million | $86K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers | 2,710 | 47% | 2.7 million | $97K |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 7,780 | 14% | 2.2 million | $70K |
| Maintenance and Repair Workers, General | 6,990 | 11% | 1.7 million | $73K |
| Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing Machine Operators | 105,200 | 1% | 1.5 million | $58K |
| Light Truck Drivers | 4,090 | 11% | 944,299 | $62K |
| Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 13,610 | 3% | 849,264 | $62K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 96 smaller jobs (28,770 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 100% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Maintain accurate records of deliveries.Postal Service Mail Carriers17 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Keep money drawers in order, and record and balance daily transactions.Postal Service Clerks9.2 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Complete forms regarding changes of address, or theft or loss of mail, or for special services such as registered or priority mail.Postal Service Clerks6.9 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Register, certify, and insure parcels and letters.Postal Service Mail Carriers3.7 million hours60% of the task within reach
- Respond to complaints regarding mail theft, delivery problems, and lost or damaged mail, filling out forms and making appropriate referrals for investigation.Postal Service Clerks3.5 million hours40% of the task within reach
- Order retail items and other supplies for office use.Postal Service Clerks3.4 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Prepare and submit detailed and summary reports of post office activities to designated supervisors.Postmasters and Mail Superintendents3.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Research, compile, and prepare reports, manuals, correspondence, or other information required by management or governmental agencies.First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers3.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Register, certify, and insure letters and parcels.Postal Service Clerks2.8 million hours40% of the task within reach
- Design, implement, or evaluate staff training and development programs, customer service initiatives, or performance measurement criteria.First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers2.7 million hours70% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Postal Service (Federal Government) is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 10% of the paid hours in Postal Service (Federal Government) are within reach of AI models now and 11% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Postal Service (Federal Government) carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Postal Service Clerks (73,720 people, 19% of their time, about 30 million hours a year); Postal Service Mail Carriers (328,820 people, 4% of their time, about 27 million hours a year); and First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers (17,950 people, 54% of their time, about 20 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Postal Service (Federal Government) carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Maintain accurate records of deliveries (Postal Service Mail Carriers, about 17 million hours a year); Keep money drawers in order, and record and balance daily transactions (Postal Service Clerks, about 9.2 million hours a year); and Complete forms regarding changes of address, or theft or loss of mail, or for special services such as registered or priority mail (Postal Service Clerks, about 6.9 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Postal Service (Federal Government) learn first?
- Among the 601,147 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (553,503 people); judgment where errors are severe (354,045 people); and dealing with people outside the organization (74,010 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 88% of their working time stays with people, 7% becomes checking a model's work and 3% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Postal Service (Federal Government) (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 100% of its people, and 97% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.